QB · SF · 209 lines since 2023

Brock Purdy Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Brock Purdy, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 17% — we make it 13%
Line 32.5 pass attempts — we project 31 (P(over) 40%)
Line 21.5 completions — we project 20 (P(over) 40%)
Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 44%)
Line 229.5 pass yds — we project 209 (P(over) 39%)
Line 4.5 rush attempts — we project 4 (P(over) 41%)
Line 22.5 rush yds — we project 17 (P(over) 39%)

Over/under record by market

Passing yards over 25, under 19 (44 graded)
Passing TDs over 25, under 19 (44 graded)
Rushing yards over 27, under 17 (44 graded)
Anytime TD over 9, under 35 (44 graded)
Pass attempts over 6, under 3 (9 graded)
Completions over 6, under 3 (9 graded)
Rush attempts over 4, under 4 (8 graded)

Our calls on him: Pressure 6–3 · Play action 1–1 · High total (48.5+) 7–8 · Man coverage 0–3 · model 47–40 · Starters out on defense 3–5 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–1 · Low total (40.5 or less) 2–1 · Wind 15+ mph 2–1 · Short week 2–2 · Freezing 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Brock Purdy prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 17%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass att	32.5	31	40% / 51%	–	…
2026 W5	Cmp	21.5	20	40% / 46%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 47%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass yds	229.5	209	39% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	4.5	4	41% / 47%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	22.5	17	39% / 51%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 21%	0	under
2026 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 52%	2	over
2026 W4	Pass yds	236.5	251	57% / 50%	218	under
2026 W4	Rush yds	17.5	17	50% / 50%	29	over
2026 W3	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 27%	0	under
2026 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	2	56% / 58%	4	over
2026 W3	Pass yds	235.5	245	55% / 50%	297	over
2026 W3	Rush yds	16.5	19	55% / 51%	34	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 24%	1	over
2026 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	2	60% / 61%	2	over
2026 W2	Pass yds	238.5	253	56% / 50%	287	over
2026 W2	Rush yds	13.5	20	65% / 50%	30	over
2026 W1	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 18%	0	under
2026 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 46%	3	over
2026 W1	Pass yds	238.5	223	43% / 50%	205	under
2026 W1	Rush yds	18.5	12	36% / 51%	29	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 16%	0	under
2025 W18	Pass att	33.5	33	49% / 51%	27	under
2025 W18	Cmp	22.5	22	48% / 49%	19	under
2025 W18	Pass TDs	1.5	2	50% / 55%	0	under
2025 W18	Pass yds	245.5	236	45% / 50%	127	under
2025 W18	Rush att	3.5	3	49% / 58%	2	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	15.5	12	42% / 50%	21	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 17%	1	over
2025 W17	Pass att	32.5	32	50% / 49%	33	over
2025 W17	Cmp	22.5	21	44% / 49%	24	over
2025 W17	Pass TDs	1.5	2	58% / 64%	3	over
2025 W17	Pass yds	254.5	263	53% / 50%	303	over
2025 W17	Rush att	3.5	3	44% / 58%	6	over
2025 W17	Rush yds	12.5	14	53% / 51%	28	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 15%	0	under
2025 W16	Pass att	32.5	34	57% / 50%	34	over
2025 W16	Cmp	21.5	22	55% / 52%	25	over
2025 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	2	51% / 58%	5	over
2025 W16	Pass yds	247.5	254	53% / 50%	295	over
2025 W16	Rush att	3.5	4	53% / 49%	2	under
2025 W16	Rush yds	11.5	14	58% / 50%	11	under
2025 W15	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 14%	0	under
2025 W15	Pass att	30.5	32	57% / 51%	30	under
2025 W15	Cmp	20.5	21	51% / 52%	23	over
2025 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	2	55% / 63%	3	over
2025 W15	Pass yds	242.5	260	57% / 50%	295	over
2025 W15	Rush att	2.5	3	68% / 58%	7	over
2025 W15	Rush yds	7.5	13	66% / 54%	44	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 9%	1	over
2025 W13	Pass att	27.5	30	67% / 49%	29	over
2025 W13	Cmp	17.5	20	70% / 49%	16	under
2025 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 39%	1	under
2025 W13	Pass yds	193.5	196	52% / 48%	168	under
2025 W13	Rush att	3.5	4	50% / 51%	2	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	11.5	11	48% / 50%	4	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 18%	0	under
2025 W12	Pass att	31.5	33	56% / 50%	32	over
2025 W12	Cmp	21.5	21	49% / 51%	23	over
2025 W12	Pass TDs	1.5	2	60% / 62%	1	under
2025 W12	Pass yds	255.5	267	55% / 49%	193	under
2025 W12	Rush att	3.5	3	44% / 44%	6	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	9.5	13	59% / 49%	16	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	–	– / 17%	0	under
2025 W11	Pass att	33.5	–	– / 46%	26	under
2025 W11	Cmp	22.5	–	– / 47%	19	under
2025 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 57%	3	over
2025 W11	Pass yds	254.5	–	– / 51%	200	under
2025 W11	Rush yds	8.5	–	– / 50%	-7	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 14%	0	under
2025 W4	Pass att	32.5	34	57% / 48%	38	over
2025 W4	Cmp	21.5	22	57% / 50%	22	over
2025 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	2	51% / 50%	2	over
2025 W4	Pass yds	243.5	255	55% / 50%	309	over
2025 W4	Rush att	3.5	4	55% / 47%	2	under
2025 W4	Rush yds	11.5	14	59% / 50%	13	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 14%	0	under
2025 W1	Pass att	31.5	33	57% / 47%	35	over
2025 W1	Cmp	21.5	21	49% / 48%	26	over
2025 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 50%	2	over
2025 W1	Pass yds	243.5	236	47% / 50%	277	over
2025 W1	Rush att	3.5	4	56% / 52%	5	over
2025 W1	Rush yds	12.5	15	57% / 50%	17	over
2024 W17	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 20%	1	over
2024 W17	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 49%	3	over
2024 W17	Pass yds	253.5	238	44% / 50%	377	over
2024 W17	Rush yds	21.5	13	31% / 51%	12	under
2024 W16	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 20%	0	under
2024 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	1	40% / 46%	2	over
2024 W16	Pass yds	242.5	224	42% / 50%	313	over
2024 W16	Rush yds	15.5	13	44% / 49%	26	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 22%	0	under
2024 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 54%	0	under
2024 W15	Pass yds	258.5	241	42% / 51%	142	under
2024 W15	Rush yds	20.5	18	43% / 50%	3	under
2024 W14	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 17%	0	under
2024 W14	Pass TDs	1.5	1	39% / 47%	2	over
2024 W14	Pass yds	230.5	207	39% / 50%	325	over
2024 W14	Rush yds	18.5	17	46% / 50%	11	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 13%	0	under
2024 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 35%	0	under
2024 W13	Pass yds	221.5	207	44% / 50%	94	under
2024 W13	Rush yds	18.5	14	39% / 50%	4	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 21%	1	over
2024 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	2	51% / 55%	1	under
2024 W11	Pass yds	251.5	253	51% / 50%	159	under
2024 W11	Rush yds	17.5	22	59% / 50%	40	over
2024 W10	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 17%	0	under
2024 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	2	51% / 57%	2	over
2024 W10	Pass yds	256.5	274	56% / 50%	353	over
2024 W10	Rush yds	14.5	21	65% / 50%	17	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 19%	1	over
2024 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	1	49% / 53%	1	under
2024 W8	Pass yds	239.5	230	45% / 50%	260	over
2024 W8	Rush yds	18.5	18	49% / 49%	56	over
2024 W7	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 15%	1	over
2024 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	1	49% / 51%	0	under
2024 W7	Pass yds	251.5	235	42% / 50%	212	under
2024 W7	Rush yds	16.5	14	43% / 50%	27	over
2024 W6	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 14%	0	under
2024 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	1	50% / 54%	3	over
2024 W6	Pass yds	253.5	245	46% / 50%	255	over
2024 W6	Rush yds	14.5	15	52% / 51%	19	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 17%	0	under
2024 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	49% / 57%	1	under
2024 W5	Pass yds	261.5	239	39% / 50%	244	under
2024 W5	Rush yds	12.5	15	57% / 49%	33	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 17%	0	under
2024 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	50% / 53%	1	under
2024 W4	Pass yds	244.5	248	51% / 50%	288	over
2024 W4	Rush yds	8.5	13	63% / 50%	11	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 21%	0	under
2024 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 46%	3	over
2024 W3	Pass yds	231.5	230	49% / 51%	292	over
2024 W3	Rush yds	8.5	8.2	49% / 50%	41	over
2024 W2	Any TD	–	6% TD chance	6% / 15%	0	under
2024 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 51%	1	under
2024 W2	Pass yds	247.5	238	46% / 51%	319	over
2024 W2	Rush yds	7.5	2.7	32% / 51%	12	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	5% TD chance	5% / 13%	0	under
2024 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 49%	0	under
2024 W1	Pass yds	237.5	223	43% / 50%	231	under
2024 W1	Rush yds	6.5	3.6	39% / 53%	11	over
2023 W17	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 17%	0	under
2023 W17	Pass TDs	1.5	2	59% / 64%	2	over
2023 W17	Pass yds	265.5	317	67% / 51%	230	under
2023 W17	Rush yds	6.5	9.5	58% / 48%	4	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 15%	0	under
2023 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	2	56% / 58%	0	under
2023 W16	Pass yds	255.5	277	58% / 50%	255	under
2023 W16	Rush yds	7.5	8.1	52% / 49%	2	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 18%	0	under
2023 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	2	56% / 62%	4	over
2023 W15	Pass yds	255.5	269	55% / 50%	242	under
2023 W15	Rush yds	7.5	11	61% / 49%	0	under
2023 W14	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 18%	0	under
2023 W14	Pass TDs	1.5	2	58% / 58%	2	over
2023 W14	Pass yds	257.5	276	58% / 50%	368	over
2023 W14	Rush yds	7.5	12	63% / 50%	7	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 13%	0	under
2023 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 53%	4	over
2023 W13	Pass yds	254.5	269	55% / 54%	314	over
2023 W13	Rush yds	8.5	9.6	53% / 51%	9	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 17%	0	under
2023 W12	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 53%	1	under
2023 W12	Pass yds	251.5	252	50% / 50%	209	under
2023 W12	Rush yds	9.5	10	52% / 49%	1	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 17%	0	under
2023 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	2	53% / 56%	3	over
2023 W11	Pass yds	259.5	277	57% / 50%	333	over
2023 W11	Rush yds	7.5	9.9	58% / 51%	14	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 12%	0	under
2023 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 47%	3	over
2023 W10	Pass yds	244.5	264	58% / 51%	296	over
2023 W10	Rush yds	8.5	9.9	54% / 51%	0	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 10%	0	under
2023 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	1	39% / 46%	1	under
2023 W8	Pass yds	239.5	227	45% / 50%	365	over
2023 W8	Rush yds	6.5	7.7	55% / 51%	57	over
2023 W7	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 12%	0	under
2023 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	1	46% / 49%	1	under
2023 W7	Pass yds	244.5	254	54% / 50%	272	over
2023 W7	Rush yds	5.5	6.5	55% / 51%	19	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 9%	0	under
2023 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	1	48% / 40%	1	under
2023 W6	Pass yds	206.5	187	40% / 50%	125	under
2023 W6	Rush yds	4.5	5.6	55% / 49%	7	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 16%	0	under
2023 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	30% / 47%	4	over
2023 W5	Pass yds	245.5	238	47% / 50%	252	over
2023 W5	Rush yds	6.5	7.3	53% / 51%	0	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 16%	1	over
2023 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	36% / 52%	1	under
2023 W4	Pass yds	231.5	275	68% / 50%	283	over
2023 W4	Rush yds	7.5	10	58% / 50%	0	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 14%	0	under
2023 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	33% / 50%	2	over
2023 W3	Pass yds	226.5	256	61% / 50%	310	over
2023 W3	Rush yds	7.5	11	62% / 48%	-1	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 13%	1	over
2023 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	31% / 51%	0	under
2023 W2	Pass yds	237.5	225	44% / 50%	206	under
2023 W2	Rush yds	6.5	13	69% / 49%	5	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 11%	0	under
2023 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 43%	2	over
2023 W1	Pass yds	232.5	–	– / 51%	220	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	4.5	–	– / 53%	20	over

Our calls

2026 W5 Under 20.5 completions (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Under 225.5 pass yds (Play action, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Under 225.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W4 Over 236.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Over 236.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Over 236.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 236.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 235.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 235.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 238.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Under 238.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Over 245.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 32.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 22.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 254.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 32.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 242.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 27.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 27.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 17.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 17.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 193.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 193.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 193.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 31.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 21.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 255.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 255.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 255.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 33.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 254.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 254.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 32.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 243.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W1 Over 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W17 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Over 253.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2024 W17 Under 253.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology