RB · TB · 149 lines since 2023
Bucky Irving Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Bucky Irving, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 35% — we make it 42%
- Line 8.5 yds longest rec — we project 7.7 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 12.5 rec yds — we project 12 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 40%)
- Line 13.5 rush attempts — we project 14 (P(over) 53%)
- Line 70.5 rush + rec yds — we project 65 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 52.5 rush yds — we project 49 (P(over) 46%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 21, under 10 (31 graded)
- Receiving yards over 16, under 15 (31 graded)
- Receptions over 18, under 11 (29 graded)
- Anytime TD over 13, under 18 (31 graded)
- Rush attempts over 6, under 4 (10 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 4 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: Big underdog (6.5+) 0–0 · Missed tackles 7–9 · Pre-snap motion 1–5 · Short week 1–1 · model 41–53 · Blitz-heavy defense 1–0 · Starters out on defense 3–1 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 35% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 7.7 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 12 | 47% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 13.5 | 14 | 53% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 70.5 | 65 | 44% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 49 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 13 | 53% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 57 | 52% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 16 | 48% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 59 | 52% / 50% | 46 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 19 | 54% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 63 | 48% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 61% TD chance | 61% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 19 | 62% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 74% / 62% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 63 | 52% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.1 | 35% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 9.1 | 31% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 24% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 15.5 | 13 | 33% / 52% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 50 | 38% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 6.6 | 32% / 48% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 8.0 | 29% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 19% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 16.5 | 13 | 28% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 54 | 39% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.9 | 40% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 11 | 34% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 15.5 | 12 | 29% / 52% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 51 | 34% / 52% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.8 | 43% / 52% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 15 | 37% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 14.5 | 12 | 33% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 52 | 43% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.5 | 41% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 12 | 40% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 17.5 | 12 | 19% / 48% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 69.5 | 52 | 32% / 50% | 55 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.1 | 44% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 44% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 60% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 46 | 58% / 51% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.8 | 41% / 51% | 72 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 18 | 39% / 50% | 102 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 16.5 | 15 | 43% / 48% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 60 | 48% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 12.5 | 9.7 | 37% / 48% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 16 | 37% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 15.5 | 14 | 43% / 52% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 70.5 | 71 | 51% / 51% | 66 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 12.5 | 7.2 | 24% / 48% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 10 | 25% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 16.5 | 13 | 26% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 54 | 36% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 11.5 | 10 | 44% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 17 | 44% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 14.5 | 11 | 29% / 52% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 70.5 | 59 | 39% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 67% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 16 | 37% / 49% | -5 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 24% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 88.5 | 73 | 37% / 49% | 89 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 62% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 15 | 47% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 87.5 | 70 | 35% / 50% | 113 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 12 | 36% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 55 | 43% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 10 | 38% / 51% | -4 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 39 | 48% / 53% | 117 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 13 | 33% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 19% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 55 | 39% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 32% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 50 | 39% / 50% | 152 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 11 | 40% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 44 | 36% / 51% | 88 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 12 | 36% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 30 | 43% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 8.5 | 30% / 53% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 29% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 26 | 39% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.6 | 43% / 51% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 33 | 53% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 8.6 | 44% / 49% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 47 | 78% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 13 | 34% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 75 | 63% / 51% | 81 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.0 | 37% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 36 | 39% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 6.9 | 36% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 37 | 49% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 3.3 | 38% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 28% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 29 | 45% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7.6 | 44% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 24 | 59% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 5.5 | – | – / 52% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 20.5 | – | – / 50% | 62 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 13.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 51.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Over 51.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 51.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 55.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (Blitz-heavy defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 57.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 65.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 60.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 60.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 16.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 64.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 64.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 64.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 64.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 64.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 57.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 57.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 57.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 69.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 69.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 40.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 16.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 62.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 15.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology