TE · TB · 175 lines since 2023
Cade Otton Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Cade Otton, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 16%
- Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 15 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 29.5 rec yds — we project 29 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 47%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 24, under 27 (51 graded)
- Receptions over 22, under 29 (51 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 44 (51 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 9 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 1–4 · Short week 0–2 · model 36–35 · Starters out on defense 5–6 · Missed tackles 2–3 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Middle of the field 4–4
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 51% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 29 | 49% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 25 | 51% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 27 | 50% / 51% | 56 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 40% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 28 | 47% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 39 | 59% / 49% | 26 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 54% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 20 | 52% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 53% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 19 | 49% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 19 | 46% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 50% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 24 | 47% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 40% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 29 | 42% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 53% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 31 | 44% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 46% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 30 | 39% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 51% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 30 | 35% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 48% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 26 | 32% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 17% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 60% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 32 | 53% / 49% | 65 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 42% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 26 | 43% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 32% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 48% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 18 | 42% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 50% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 21 | 42% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 27 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 14.5 | 13 | 46% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 21 | 38% / 49% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 60% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 15.5 | 19 | 59% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 36 | 53% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 29% | – | void |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 34 | 47% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 35 | 42% / 51% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 31% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 34 | 41% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 29% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 37 | 41% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 40 | 31% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 32% / 56% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 31 | 23% / 51% | 77 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 25% / 48% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 34 | 34% / 52% | 81 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 28 | 38% / 51% | 100 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 30 | 47% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 25 | 41% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 21 | 46% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 15 | 42% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 41% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 17 | 31% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 24 | 49% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 42% / 49% | 30 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 22 | 42% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 24 | 51% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 22 | 46% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 45% / 52% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 25 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 26 | 47% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 21 | 37% / 48% | 49 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 27 | 46% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 21 | 40% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 20 | 41% / 47% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 16 | 44% / 49% | 43 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 21 | 46% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 19 | 38% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 24 | 44% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 16 | 35% / 49% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | – | – / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 56% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 27.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 27.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W1 Over 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 19.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 21.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 26.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 35.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 37.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 29.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 22.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 22.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 30.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 42.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 42.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 55.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 45.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology