WR · TEN · 147 lines since 2023
Calvin Ridley Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Calvin Ridley, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 8% — we make it 3%
- Line 7.5 yds longest rec — we project 7.0 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 8.5 rec yds — we project 7.9 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 0.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 70%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 22, under 23 (45 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 26 (45 graded)
- Anytime TD over 9, under 36 (45 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 3 (7 graded)
Our calls on him: model 31–24 · Pre-snap motion 3–9 · Middle of the field 1–1 · Missed tackles 1–1 · Play action 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Starters out on defense 2–3 · Explosive plays 4–1 · Contested catches 1–0 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 7.0 | 49% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.9 | 49% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 70% / 61% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 7.9 | 57% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 68% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 10 | 42% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 8.2 | 32% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 53% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 24 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 17.5 | 17 | 49% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 28 | 45% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 60% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 46 | 47% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 16.5 | 21 | 62% / 48% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 39 | 58% / 49% | 131 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 55% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 43 | 47% / 49% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 55% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 46 | 46% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 45 | 38% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 20.5 | 24 | 60% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 59 | 55% / 48% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 71 | 60% / 52% | 76 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 62% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 56 | 44% / 51% | 84 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 53 | 44% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 59 | 46% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 60 | 45% / 50% | 59 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 56 | 44% / 52% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 54 | 44% / 50% | 93 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 55 | 48% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 52 | 50% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 65% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 62 | 59% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 42% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 48 | 52% / 50% | 143 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 42% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 35 | 43% / 51% | 42 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 38 | 40% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 32 | 37% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 40 | 43% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 34 | 38% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 41 | 36% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 68 | 67% / 55% | 106 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 57 | 55% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 61 | 48% / 51% | 90 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 53 | 56% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 41 | 45% / 49% | 53 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 56 | 49% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 56 | 48% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 55 | 54% / 51% | 103 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 61 | 56% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 52 | 51% / 50% | 83 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 47 | 43% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 58 | 45% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 59% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 50 | 47% / 50% | 122 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 68 | 50% / 49% | 38 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 82 | 58% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 54% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 73 | 50% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 62% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 63.5 | – | – / 50% | 101 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | – | – / 43% | 8 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 32.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 31.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 60.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 60.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 63.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 63.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 63.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 65.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 51.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 51.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Over 42.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Over 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Under 48.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Over 51.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology