WR · TEN · 16 lines since 2023
Carnell Tate Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Carnell Tate, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 22% — we make it 13%
- Line 18.5 yds longest rec — we project 18 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 46.5 rec yds — we project 43 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 5 (P(over) 53%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
- Receptions over 3, under 1 (4 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 4 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 18 | 49% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 43 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 40 | 45% / 50% | 145 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 46% | 9 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 34 | 45% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 31 | 38% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 38.5 | – | – / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 45% | 4 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology