RB · PHI · 28 lines since 2023
Carson Steele Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Carson Steele, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 1, under 6 (7 graded)
- Receiving yards over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Receptions over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 16 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 2–2 · model 5–6
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | – | … |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 14 | 59% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 13 | 53% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 16 | 58% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 17 | 53% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0 | 24% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 9% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 46.5 | 28 | 24% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 0 | 3% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 0% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 9.4 | 3% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 15% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2024 W12 Over 10.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 11.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 13.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 15.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 46.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 47.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology