WR · NO · 109 lines since 2023

Cedric Tillman Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Cedric Tillman, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
Receiving yards over 11, under 18 (29 graded)
Receptions over 7, under 19 (26 graded)
Anytime TD over 4, under 34 (38 graded)
Longest reception over 5, under 8 (13 graded)

Our calls on him: model 27–16 · Middle of the field 2–1 · Freezing 2–0 · Wind 15+ mph 3–2 · Starters out on defense 2–0 · Short week 2–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Cedric Tillman prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	–	– / 6%	–	…
2025 W18	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 15%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	13.5	12	45% / 49%	23	over
2025 W18	Rec yds	20.5	15	41% / 50%	23	over
2025 W18	Rec	1.5	2	50% / 61%	1	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 10%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	9.5	10.0	52% / 50%	42	over
2025 W17	Rec yds	11.5	14	54% / 50%	42	over
2025 W17	Rec	1.5	2	51% / 40%	1	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 10%	0	under
2025 W16	Long rec	10.5	9.9	48% / 50%	8	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	13.5	13	49% / 50%	8	under
2025 W16	Rec	1.5	1	50% / 43%	1	under
2025 W15	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 13%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	12.5	11	46% / 49%	0	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	15.5	16	50% / 50%	0	under
2025 W15	Rec	1.5	2	55% / 53%	0	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 17%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	12.5	12	48% / 49%	23	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	17.5	16	48% / 50%	23	over
2025 W14	Rec	1.5	2	54% / 57%	1	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 15%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	11.5	12	53% / 51%	0	under
2025 W13	Rec yds	17.5	19	52% / 51%	0	under
2025 W13	Rec	1.5	2	64% / 57%	0	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 14%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	13.5	13	48% / 50%	5	under
2025 W12	Rec yds	21.5	20	48% / 50%	5	under
2025 W12	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 41%	1	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 12%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	10.5	12	55% / 50%	26	over
2025 W11	Rec yds	18.5	18	49% / 50%	52	over
2025 W11	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 37%	3	over
2025 W10	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 21%	0	under
2025 W10	Long rec	13.5	14	53% / 51%	9	under
2025 W10	Rec yds	26.5	22	44% / 49%	11	under
2025 W10	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 52%	2	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 25%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	15.5	14	46% / 51%	6	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	35.5	25	35% / 50%	6	under
2025 W4	Rec	3.5	3	32% / 47%	1	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 25%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	16.5	15	46% / 49%	10	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	39.5	26	32% / 50%	26	under
2025 W3	Rec	3.5	3	32% / 54%	3	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 22%	1	over
2025 W2	Long rec	19.5	16	37% / 49%	18	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	46.5	28	26% / 51%	22	under
2025 W2	Rec	4.5	3	22% / 43%	2	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 27%	1	over
2025 W1	Long rec	18.5	20	56% / 50%	25	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	40.5	40	49% / 50%	52	over
2025 W1	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 45%	5	over
2024 W12	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 23%	0	under
2024 W12	Rec yds	42.5	29	34% / 50%	28	under
2024 W12	Rec	3.5	3	37% / 51%	2	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 36%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	59.5	33	22% / 51%	47	under
2024 W11	Rec	4.5	3	23% / 51%	3	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 29%	1	over
2024 W9	Rec yds	47.5	27	25% / 51%	75	over
2024 W9	Rec	3.5	3	33% / 56%	6	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 22%	1	over
2024 W8	Rec yds	39.5	20	24% / 51%	99	over
2024 W8	Rec	3.5	2	22% / 44%	7	over
2024 W8	Rush yds	0.5	0	10% / 14%	0	under
2024 W7	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 13%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	15.5	9.0	37% / 51%	81	over
2024 W7	Rec	1.5	1	38% / 55%	8	over
2024 W7	Rush yds	0.5	0	19% / 28%	0	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	4% TD chance	4% / 6%	0	under
2024 W5	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 8%	0	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 10%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec yds	7.5	9.3	54% / 50%	0	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 14%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	10.5	10	50% / 51%	4	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 13%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	9.5	13	58% / 48%	2	under
2024 W1	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 14%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec yds	12.5	25	68% / 49%	3	under
2024 W1	Rec	1.5	2	63% / 51%	1	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 21%	0	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 20%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	30.5	18	32% / 50%	8	under
2023 W17	Rec	2.5	2	31% / 51%	1	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 19%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec yds	23.5	17	40% / 50%	13	under
2023 W16	Rec	2.5	2	28% / 39%	2	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 13%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	17.5	14	44% / 49%	52	over
2023 W15	Rec	1.5	1	46% / 53%	4	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 14%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	16.5	17	52% / 50%	23	over
2023 W14	Rec	1.5	2	52% / 53%	2	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 17%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	18.5	10	34% / 49%	20	over
2023 W13	Rec	2.5	1	18% / 36%	2	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 13%	0	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 13%	0	under
2023 W11	Rec yds	11.5	6.2	39% / 49%	2	under
2023 W11	Rec	1.5	1	27% / 40%	1	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 12%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	13.5	3.9	28% / 51%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec	1.5	1	25% / 47%	0	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 13%	0	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	4% TD chance	4% / 6%	0	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	4% TD chance	4% / 7%	0	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	4% TD chance	4% / 8%	0	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 10%	0	under

Our calls

2025 W18 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 11.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 13.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 13.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 17.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 18.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 18.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Under 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W12 Over 42.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
2024 W12 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W12 Under 42.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2024 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W11 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W9 Over 47.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
2024 W9 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W8 Over 39.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2024 W8 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W7 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W7 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W2 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W1 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W1 Under 12.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
2024 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2023 W17 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2023 W17 Under 30.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2023 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2023 W16 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2023 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2023 W15 Under 17.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
2023 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2023 W13 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2023 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2023 W11 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2023 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2023 W10 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2023 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology