TE · LAC · 66 lines since 2023
Charlie Kolar Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Charlie Kolar, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 6%
- Line 10.5 yds longest rec — we project 5.0 (P(over) 31%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 4, under 3 (7 graded)
- Receptions over 4, under 2 (6 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 42 (46 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 1 (5 graded)
Our calls on him: model 8–4 · Starters out on defense 2–0 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Short week 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 13% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 5.0 | 31% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 1.8 | 21% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 18% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 0.5 | 0 | 47% / 42% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 0 | 47% / 41% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 48% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 1.5 | 0 | 47% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 0 | 47% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 50% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 1.5 | 1.2 | 50% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 1.2 | 50% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 52% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 4.5 | 0 | 25% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 0 | 25% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 33% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 7.5 | 1.3 | 34% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 2.5 | 30% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 21% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 4.2 | 58% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 14% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W1 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 1.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 12.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology