TE · ATL · 68 lines since 2023
Charlie Woerner Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Charlie Woerner, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 7% — we make it 7%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 54 (54 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 6–3 · Starters out on defense 1–0 · Dome team outdoors 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 0.5 | 0 | 40% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 0 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 41% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 0.5 | 0 | 43% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 0 | 43% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 44% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 0.5 | 0 | 41% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 0 | 41% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 43% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 4.5 | 0 | 31% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 0 | 32% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 43% / 62% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | – | void |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W17 Under 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 4.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology