TE · WAS · 230 lines since 2023

Chig Okonkwo Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Chig Okonkwo, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 22% — we make it 30%
Line 13.5 yds longest rec — we project 14 (P(over) 52%)
Line 26.5 rec yds — we project 23 (P(over) 45%)
Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 34%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
Receiving yards over 39, under 30 (69 graded)
Receptions over 37, under 32 (69 graded)
Anytime TD over 6, under 64 (70 graded)
Longest reception over 11, under 6 (17 graded)

Our calls on him: model 31–37 · Missed tackles 0–2 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Starters out on defense 7–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Play action 0–1 · Man coverage 1–0 · Short week 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Chig Okonkwo prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 22%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	13.5	14	52% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	26.5	23	45% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	3.5	3	34% / 40%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 21%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	29.5	21	37% / 50%	5	under
2026 W4	Rec	3.5	2	28% / 45%	2	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 19%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	27.5	26	47% / 50%	16	under
2026 W1	Rec	2.5	3	60% / 58%	2	under
2025 W18	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 28%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	16.5	16	48% / 51%	1	under
2025 W18	Rec yds	41.5	36	44% / 50%	2	under
2025 W18	Rec	4.5	4	45% / 51%	2	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 21%	1	over
2025 W17	Long rec	14.5	12	40% / 48%	43	over
2025 W17	Rec yds	26.5	20	38% / 50%	55	over
2025 W17	Rec	2.5	3	50% / 58%	3	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 14%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	13.5	12	44% / 51%	15	over
2025 W16	Rec yds	26.5	20	38% / 50%	44	over
2025 W16	Rec	2.5	3	53% / 56%	6	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 17%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	15.5	11	32% / 50%	17	over
2025 W15	Rec yds	26.5	18	35% / 50%	33	over
2025 W15	Rec	2.5	2.5	50% / 48%	4	over
2025 W14	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 13%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	11.5	9.9	42% / 52%	11	under
2025 W14	Rec yds	20.5	15	39% / 50%	20	under
2025 W14	Rec	2.5	2	43% / 44%	2	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 20%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	13.5	12	44% / 49%	16	over
2025 W13	Rec yds	23.5	19	42% / 50%	29	over
2025 W13	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 50%	4	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 14%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	13.5	12	43% / 49%	26	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	25.5	22	44% / 50%	40	over
2025 W12	Rec	2.5	3	61% / 57%	3	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 12%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	13.5	12	41% / 49%	39	over
2025 W11	Rec yds	22.5	21	47% / 50%	56	over
2025 W11	Rec	2.5	3	57% / 45%	3	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 16%	0	under
2025 W9	Long rec	14.5	12	42% / 50%	6	under
2025 W9	Rec yds	27.5	23	43% / 49%	10	under
2025 W9	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 41%	2	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 18%	0	under
2025 W8	Long rec	13.5	13	50% / 51%	23	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	27.5	27	48% / 50%	53	over
2025 W8	Rec	3.5	3	50% / 44%	4	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 20%	0	under
2025 W7	Long rec	14.5	13	43% / 49%	0	under
2025 W7	Rec yds	30.5	24	41% / 50%	0	under
2025 W7	Rec	3.5	3	47% / 49%	0	under
2025 W6	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 16%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	13.5	12	45% / 51%	20	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	26.5	21	40% / 50%	46	over
2025 W6	Rec	3.5	3	33% / 42%	6	over
2025 W5	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 14%	0	under
2025 W5	Long rec	14.5	13	45% / 48%	16	over
2025 W5	Rec yds	24.5	25	51% / 49%	48	over
2025 W5	Rec	3.5	3	43% / 42%	4	over
2025 W4	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 14%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	14.5	12	41% / 51%	4	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	32.5	23	35% / 50%	4	under
2025 W4	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 49%	1	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 20%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	14.5	13	43% / 51%	22	over
2025 W3	Rec yds	32.5	22	34% / 50%	66	over
2025 W3	Rec	3.5	3	36% / 51%	5	over
2025 W2	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 17%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	14.5	12	39% / 49%	14	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	30.5	20	32% / 50%	35	over
2025 W2	Rec	3.5	3	32% / 45%	4	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 16%	0	under
2025 W1	Long rec	13.5	14	53% / 51%	14	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	31.5	29	46% / 50%	19	under
2025 W1	Rec	3.5	4	53% / 50%	3	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	0.5	0	7% / 11%	0	under
2024 W18	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 22%	0	under
2024 W17	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 23%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	39.5	28	33% / 50%	42	over
2024 W17	Rec	4.5	3	30% / 42%	5	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 18%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	28.5	23	42% / 50%	81	over
2024 W16	Rec	2.5	3	53% / 59%	9	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 18%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	25.5	21	43% / 50%	59	over
2024 W15	Rec	2.5	2	46% / 55%	8	over
2024 W14	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 19%	0	under
2024 W14	Rec yds	24.5	22	45% / 49%	8	under
2024 W14	Rec	2.5	2	43% / 49%	3	over
2024 W13	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 17%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	19.5	16	43% / 50%	27	over
2024 W13	Rec	2.5	2	37% / 41%	3	over
2024 W12	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 12%	1	over
2024 W12	Rec yds	18.5	17	47% / 49%	70	over
2024 W12	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 44%	1	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 15%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	17.5	18	51% / 50%	19	over
2024 W11	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 40%	2	under
2024 W10	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 13%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	21.5	19	46% / 51%	14	under
2024 W10	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 53%	1	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 15%	0	under
2024 W9	Rec yds	19.5	23	57% / 50%	38	over
2024 W9	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 47%	3	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 17%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec yds	23.5	21	45% / 50%	14	under
2024 W8	Rec	2.5	3	58% / 55%	2	under
2024 W7	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 14%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	17.5	16	47% / 50%	50	over
2024 W7	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 39%	4	over
2024 W6	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 17%	0	under
2024 W6	Rec yds	17.5	18	52% / 50%	6	under
2024 W6	Rec	1.5	2	63% / 62%	3	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 15%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec yds	16.5	13	42% / 50%	5	under
2024 W4	Rec	2.5	2	36% / 39%	1	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 19%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	17.5	16	47% / 50%	15	under
2024 W3	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 40%	2	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 19%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	20.5	16	40% / 50%	16	under
2024 W2	Rec	2.5	2	37% / 44%	3	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 19%	1	over
2024 W1	Rec yds	26.5	22	42% / 50%	15	under
2024 W1	Rec	2.5	3	50% / 52%	2	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 24%	0	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 28%	0	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	35.5	30	42% / 49%	36	over
2023 W18	Rec yds	34.5	30	44% / 47%	36	over
2023 W18	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 49%	2	under
2023 W18	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 49%	2	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 22%	0	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 30%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	37.5	30	41% / 50%	34	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	42.5	30	36% / 49%	34	under
2023 W17	Rec	3.5	3	49% / 54%	3	under
2023 W17	Rec	3.5	3	49% / 58%	3	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 23%	1	over
2023 W16	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 26%	1	over
2023 W16	Rec yds	33.5	26	39% / 50%	63	over
2023 W16	Rec yds	29.5	26	45% / 50%	63	over
2023 W16	Rec	3.5	3	41% / 43%	6	over
2023 W16	Rec	3.5	3	41% / 46%	6	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 24%	0	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 29%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	30.5	29	48% / 51%	36	over
2023 W15	Rec yds	30.5	29	48% / 49%	36	over
2023 W15	Rec	3.5	3	45% / 41%	3	under
2023 W15	Rec	2.5	3	62% / 60%	3	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 19%	0	under
2023 W14	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 24%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	32.5	23	36% / 50%	46	over
2023 W14	Rec yds	32.5	23	36% / 50%	46	over
2023 W14	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 46%	5	over
2023 W14	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 46%	5	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 21%	0	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 22%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	23.5	23	50% / 51%	62	over
2023 W13	Rec yds	23.5	23	50% / 52%	62	over
2023 W13	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 50%	3	over
2023 W13	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 50%	3	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 25%	0	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 19%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	22.5	20	46% / 50%	45	over
2023 W12	Rec yds	22.5	20	46% / 50%	45	over
2023 W12	Rec	2.5	3	51% / 49%	4	over
2023 W12	Rec	2.5	3	51% / 49%	4	over
2023 W11	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 24%	0	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 17%	0	under
2023 W11	Rec yds	28.5	24	42% / 46%	6	under
2023 W11	Rec yds	27.5	24	44% / 50%	6	under
2023 W11	Rec	3.5	3	45% / 40%	1	under
2023 W11	Rec	3.5	3	45% / 40%	1	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 22%	0	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 27%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	30.5	24	39% / 47%	27	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	29.5	24	41% / 50%	27	under
2023 W10	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 39%	3	under
2023 W10	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 40%	3	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 20%	0	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 25%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	25.5	23	45% / 50%	28	over
2023 W9	Rec yds	25.5	23	45% / 50%	28	over
2023 W9	Rec	2.5	3	63% / 55%	3	over
2023 W9	Rec	2.5	3	63% / 55%	3	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 17%	0	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 22%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	22.5	24	53% / 49%	23	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	20.5	24	57% / 49%	23	over
2023 W8	Rec	2.5	3	65% / 48%	4	over
2023 W8	Rec	2.5	3	65% / 47%	4	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 21%	0	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 25%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	26.5	26	50% / 50%	18	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	26.5	26	50% / 47%	18	under
2023 W6	Rec	2.5	3	65% / 54%	2	under
2023 W6	Rec	2.5	3	65% / 56%	2	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 27%	0	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 21%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	27.5	22	41% / 53%	33	over
2023 W5	Rec yds	30.5	22	37% / 50%	33	over
2023 W5	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 57%	5	over
2023 W5	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 55%	5	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 20%	0	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 24%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	30.5	23	37% / 51%	29	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	30.5	23	37% / 50%	29	under
2023 W4	Rec	3.5	3	40% / 41%	3	under
2023 W4	Rec	3.5	3	40% / 43%	3	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 20%	0	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 25%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	31.5	19	28% / 45%	7	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	29.5	19	31% / 50%	7	under
2023 W3	Rec	3.5	3	33% / 41%	3	under
2023 W3	Rec	3.5	3	33% / 42%	3	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 23%	0	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 29%	0	under
2023 W2	Rec yds	30.5	13	21% / 49%	35	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	30.5	13	21% / 49%	35	over
2023 W2	Rec	2.5	2	29% / 59%	4	over
2023 W2	Rec	2.5	2	29% / 58%	4	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 23%	0	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 29%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	33.5	–	– / 50%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	33.5	–	– / 50%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec	3.5	–	– / 41%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec	3.5	–	– / 43%	0	under

Our calls

2026 W4 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W18 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 26.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 20.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 22.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 30.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Over 39.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2024 W17 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Under 39.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W16 Over 28.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2024 W16 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W15 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W14 Over 24.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
2024 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W13 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W11 Over 17.5 rec yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
2024 W11 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W9 Under 19.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2024 W9 Over 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W9 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W7 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W4 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology