WR · TB · 126 lines since 2023

Chris Godwin Jr. Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Chris Godwin Jr., what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 22% — we make it 15%
Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 52%)
Line 31.5 rec yds — we project 31 (P(over) 49%)
Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 48%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
Receiving yards over 18, under 19 (37 graded)
Receptions over 18, under 19 (37 graded)
Anytime TD over 9, under 28 (37 graded)
Longest reception over 3, under 6 (9 graded)

Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 8–1 · Short week 3–0 · Blitz-heavy defense 0–1 · model 23–33 · Missed tackles 4–3 · Starters out on defense 1–3 · Middle of the field 4–2 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Chris Godwin Jr. prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 22%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	15.5	16	52% / 51%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	31.5	31	49% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 55%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 17%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	25.5	24	47% / 51%	31	over
2026 W4	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 52%	6	over
2026 W3	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 24%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	35.5	27	38% / 50%	25	under
2026 W3	Rec	3.5	3	36% / 45%	3	under
2026 W2	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 29%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	38.5	32	43% / 50%	46	over
2026 W2	Rec	3.5	3	40% / 53%	3	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 32%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	47.5	57	60% / 50%	40	under
2026 W1	Rec	4.5	5	57% / 46%	4	under
2025 W18	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 26%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	15.5	17	55% / 50%	8	under
2025 W18	Rec yds	35.5	30	43% / 50%	8	under
2025 W18	Rec	3.5	3	39% / 56%	1	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 28%	1	over
2025 W17	Long rec	16.5	17	51% / 50%	59	over
2025 W17	Rec yds	35.5	28	40% / 50%	108	over
2025 W17	Rec	3.5	3	32% / 50%	7	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 26%	0	under
2025 W16	Long rec	16.5	17	52% / 49%	13	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	33.5	28	43% / 51%	30	under
2025 W16	Rec	3.5	3	32% / 45%	5	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 32%	1	over
2025 W15	Long rec	17.5	22	61% / 51%	8	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	40.5	42	51% / 50%	20	under
2025 W15	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 54%	4	over
2025 W14	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 33%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	18.5	19	50% / 49%	21	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	39.5	30	39% / 50%	55	over
2025 W14	Rec	3.5	2	27% / 54%	5	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 28%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	15.5	17	55% / 50%	31	over
2025 W13	Rec yds	30.5	28	47% / 49%	78	over
2025 W13	Rec	3.5	2	29% / 41%	3	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 23%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	15.5	19	59% / 49%	5	under
2025 W12	Rec yds	28.5	35	58% / 50%	9	under
2025 W12	Rec	2.5	3	61% / 56%	2	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 31%	0	under
2025 W5	Long rec	20.5	23	58% / 49%	13	under
2025 W5	Rec yds	53.5	56	53% / 49%	26	under
2025 W5	Rec	5.5	5	40% / 41%	3	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 25%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	16.5	21	67% / 49%	11	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	36.5	50	65% / 51%	26	under
2025 W4	Rec	3.5	5	68% / 49%	3	under
2024 W7	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 40%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	74.5	73	49% / 51%	65	under
2024 W7	Rec	6.5	6	44% / 51%	7	over
2024 W6	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 39%	1	over
2024 W6	Rec yds	63.5	74	58% / 50%	125	over
2024 W6	Rec	5.5	6	60% / 55%	11	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 40%	0	under
2024 W5	Rec yds	68.5	66	48% / 51%	64	under
2024 W5	Rec	6.5	6	43% / 44%	5	under
2024 W5	Rush yds	0.5	0	12% / 17%	2	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 36%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec yds	64.5	66	52% / 51%	69	over
2024 W4	Rec	5.5	6	55% / 56%	6	over
2024 W4	Rush yds	0.5	0	16% / 20%	0	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 41%	1	over
2024 W3	Rec yds	64.5	55	41% / 51%	53	under
2024 W3	Rec	6.5	5	27% / 42%	6	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 34%	1	over
2024 W2	Rec yds	60.5	51	41% / 51%	117	over
2024 W2	Rec	5.5	4	34% / 51%	7	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 34%	1	over
2024 W1	Rec yds	57.5	60	53% / 50%	83	over
2024 W1	Rec	5.5	5	41% / 43%	8	over
2023 W18	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 29%	0	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	50.5	51	51% / 49%	51	over
2023 W18	Rec	4.5	4	48% / 50%	6	over
2023 W17	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 30%	1	over
2023 W17	Rec yds	54.5	56	52% / 51%	81	over
2023 W17	Rec	5.5	5	39% / 43%	3	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 32%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec yds	56.5	56	50% / 50%	78	over
2023 W16	Rec	5.5	5	40% / 48%	6	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 29%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	45.5	40	44% / 48%	155	over
2023 W15	Rec	4.5	4	38% / 48%	10	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 30%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	50.5	40	39% / 50%	53	over
2023 W14	Rec	4.5	4	39% / 55%	5	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 31%	1	over
2023 W13	Rec yds	44.5	39	44% / 50%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec	4.5	4	38% / 48%	0	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 33%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	50.5	50	49% / 50%	45	under
2023 W12	Rec	4.5	5	51% / 57%	3	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 29%	0	under
2023 W11	Rec yds	52.5	42	39% / 51%	39	under
2023 W11	Rec	5.5	5	39% / 43%	6	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 30%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	56.5	53	47% / 50%	54	under
2023 W10	Rec	5.5	5	39% / 47%	4	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 31%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	58.5	51	43% / 50%	16	under
2023 W9	Rec	5.5	5	43% / 49%	2	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 28%	1	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	54.5	48	44% / 51%	54	under
2023 W8	Rec	5.5	5	43% / 45%	5	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 27%	0	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	58.5	50	42% / 49%	66	over
2023 W7	Rec	5.5	5	40% / 44%	6	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 29%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	56.5	62	55% / 50%	77	over
2023 W6	Rec	5.5	6	51% / 42%	6	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 23%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	53.5	47	44% / 50%	114	over
2023 W4	Rec	5.5	5	37% / 44%	8	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 28%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	54.5	51	46% / 50%	32	under
2023 W3	Rec	5.5	5	43% / 44%	3	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 30%	0	under
2023 W2	Rec yds	54.5	40	34% / 50%	58	over
2023 W2	Rec	5.5	4	31% / 44%	5	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 29%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	57.5	–	– / 50%	51	under
2023 W1	Rec	5.5	–	– / 44%	5	under

Our calls

2026 W5 Over 28.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Under 28.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W3 Over 35.5 rec yds (Blitz-heavy defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 40.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 28.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 28.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Over 53.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Under 53.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 36.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W7 Over 74.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
2024 W7 Under 74.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2024 W7 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W6 Under 63.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
2024 W6 Under 63.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2024 W6 Over 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W6 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W5 Under 68.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
2024 W5 Under 68.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2024 W5 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W3 Under 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W3 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W2 Over 60.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
2024 W2 Under 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2023 W18 Over 50.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2023 W18 Under 50.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
2023 W16 Over 56.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2023 W16 Over 56.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2023 W16 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2023 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology