WR · NO · 152 lines since 2023
Chris Olave Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Chris Olave, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 34% — we make it 32%
- Line 23.5 yds longest rec — we project 25 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 79.5 rec yds — we project 73 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 6.5 receptions — we project 7 (P(over) 51%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 25, under 19 (44 graded)
- Receptions over 27, under 17 (44 graded)
- Anytime TD over 14, under 30 (44 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 8 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 6–4 · Dome team outdoors 8–6 · Middle of the field 3–0 · model 29–33 · Starters out on defense 2–5 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Missed tackles 2–2 · Explosive plays 0–2 · Short week 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 34% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 23.5 | 25 | 57% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 73 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 51% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 86.5 | 89 | 52% / 50% | 116 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 55% / 55% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 74 | 48% / 50% | 107 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 43% / 44% | 9 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 58 | 42% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 93 | 62% / 50% | 182 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 8 | 64% / 46% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 24.5 | 26 | 53% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 74 | 52% / 50% | 119 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 62% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 22.5 | 25 | 59% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 69 | 54% / 51% | 148 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 50% / 49% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 63 | 52% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 57% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 22.5 | 21 | 46% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 62 | 47% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 60% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 23.5 | 22 | 45% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 63 | 48% / 50% | 47 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 61% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 23.5 | 28 | 62% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 84 | 63% / 51% | 70 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 68% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 49% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 62 | 56% / 50% | 104 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 63% / 47% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 20.5 | 19 | 44% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 53 | 46% / 50% | 57 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 57% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 56% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 57 | 43% / 51% | 63 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 57% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 52% / 52% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 49 | 38% / 50% | 98 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 55% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 57% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 50 | 44% / 49% | 98 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 56% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 53 | 46% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 20.5 | 18 | 42% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 46 | 35% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 20.5 | 20 | 48% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 47 | 38% / 49% | 57 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 20.5 | 18 | 42% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 34 | 27% / 50% | 54 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 35 | 31% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 67 | 50% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 40 | 37% / 51% | 107 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 52 | 52% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 51 | 42% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 46 | 39% / 50% | 87 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 51% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 57 | 39% / 51% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 34% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 38 | 28% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 56% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 52 | 38% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 31% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 71 | 50% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 54% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 71 | 51% / 52% | 26 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 56% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 65 | 51% / 50% | 123 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 43% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 35% | – | void |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 70 | 51% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 52% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 79 | 58% / 50% | 119 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 62% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 59 | 42% / 49% | 114 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 58 | 47% / 51% | 94 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 61 | 47% / 50% | 46 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 65 | 53% / 51% | 46 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 60% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 60 | 46% / 50% | 57 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 52 | 44% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 54% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 57 | 46% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 84 | 58% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 66% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 79 | 61% / 50% | 104 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 63% / 43% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 64 | 45% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 60% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 65.5 | – | – / 50% | 112 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 53% | 8 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Under 76.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 67.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 67.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 67.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 76.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 70.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 70.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 70.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 64.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 65.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 67.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 67.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 67.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 55.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 55.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 57.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 59.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 56.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 59.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 58.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 67.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 67.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology