Edgehalla

RB · JAX · 87 lines since 2023

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Chris Rodriguez Jr., what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 23% — we make it 28%
  • Line 6.5 rush attempts — we project 8 (P(over) 63%)
  • Line 25.5 rush yds — we project 33 (P(over) 62%)

Over/under record by market

  • Rushing yards over 13, under 6 (19 graded)
  • Receiving yards over 3, under 3 (6 graded)
  • Receptions over 2, under 3 (5 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 13, under 31 (44 graded)
  • Rush attempts over 3, under 4 (7 graded)
  • Longest reception over 1, under 0 (1 graded)

Our calls on him: Missed tackles 4–3 · model 16–24 · Stacked boxes 1–2 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–2 · Starters out on defense 1–0 · Pre-snap motion 0–2

Line vs actual vs our projection

Chris Rodriguez Jr. prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–28% TD chance28% / 23%–…
2026 W5Rush att6.5863% / 50%–…
2026 W5Rush yds25.53362% / 50%–…
2026 W4Any TD–29% TD chance29% / 25%1over
2026 W4Rush yds17.52970% / 50%35over
2026 W3Any TD–29% TD chance29% / 29%1over
2026 W3Rush yds20.53068% / 50%37over
2026 W2Any TD–40% TD chance40% / 25%0under
2026 W2Rush yds24.54578% / 50%13under
2026 W1Any TD–67% TD chance67% / 38%0under
2026 W1Rush yds37.57887% / 50%23under
2025 W18Any TD–27% TD chance27% / 38%1over
2025 W16Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 33%1over
2025 W16Rec0.5016% / 38%1over
2025 W16Rush att11.5712% / 45%15over
2025 W16Rush yds41.52625% / 50%63over
2025 W14Any TD–28% TD chance28% / 37%0under
2025 W14Rec yds0.5017% / 43%0under
2025 W14Rec0.5017% / 50%0under
2025 W14Rush att11.5716% / 48%10under
2025 W14Rush yds43.53033% / 50%52over
2025 W13Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 33%1over
2025 W13Rush att10.5611% / 51%11over
2025 W13Rush yds40.52120% / 50%41over
2025 W11Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 36%0under
2025 W11Long rec0.504% / 46%6over
2025 W11Rec yds0.504% / 45%6over
2025 W11Rec0.504% / 51%1over
2025 W11Rush att10.556% / 48%15over
2025 W11Rush yds40.52119% / 52%79over
2025 W10Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 24%1over
2025 W10Rush att6.5533% / 53%6under
2025 W10Rush yds27.52034% / 51%16under
2025 W9Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 11%1over
2025 W8Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 11%0under
2025 W8Rush yds9.51564% / 49%2under
2025 W7Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 23%1over
2025 W6Any TD–27% TD chance27% / 26%0under
2025 W6Rush yds16.52464% / 50%0under
2025 W5Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 25%0under
2025 W5Rush att6.5638% / 48%5under
2025 W5Rush yds27.52545% / 50%7under
2025 W4Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 27%0under
2025 W4Rush att7.5631% / 53%7under
2025 W4Rush yds32.52130% / 50%59over
2025 W3Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 22%0under
2024 W18Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 13%0under
2024 W17Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 11%1over
2024 W16Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 6%0under
2024 W15Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 17%0under
2024 W13Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 15%1over
2024 W10Any TD–30% TD chance30% / 13%0under
2024 W9Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 14%0under
2023 W16Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 30%1over
2023 W16Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 31%1over
2023 W16Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 33%1over
2023 W16Rec yds3.507% / 46%7over
2023 W16Rec yds3.507% / 47%7over
2023 W16Rush yds38.52731% / 53%58over
2023 W16Rush yds39.52729% / 50%58over
2023 W15Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 27%0under
2023 W15Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 36%0under
2023 W15Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 22%0under
2023 W15Rush yds18.53173% / 50%35over
2023 W15Rush yds24.53162% / 53%35over
2023 W13Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%0under
2023 W13Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 12%0under
2023 W12Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 11%0under
2023 W12Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 10%0under
2023 W11Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 18%0under
2023 W11Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 24%0under
2023 W11Rec yds5.505% / 45%5under
2023 W11Rec yds5.505% / 47%5under
2023 W11Rec1.501% / 32%1under
2023 W11Rec1.501% / 32%1under
2023 W11Rush yds16.51033% / 52%43over
2023 W11Rush yds16.51033% / 53%43over
2023 W9Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 11%–void
2023 W9Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 9%–void
2023 W7Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 6%0under
2023 W6Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 5%0under
2023 W3Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 5%0under
2023 W3Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 6%0under
2023 W2Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 4%0under
2023 W2Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 6%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 13%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 5%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Over 17.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W4 Over 17.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W3 Under 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W3 Over 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Under 24.5 rush yds (Stacked boxes, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W2 Over 24.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Over 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Over 37.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Under 11.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 41.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 41.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Under 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Under 43.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 10.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 40.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 40.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 40.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 10.5 rush attempts (Stacked boxes, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 40.5 rush yds (Stacked boxes, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 40.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Under 6.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 27.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Under 9.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Over 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Over 16.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W4 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W4 Under 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 39.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Over 18.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W15 Over 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W11 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W11 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology