RB · SF · 205 lines since 2023

Christian McCaffrey Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Christian McCaffrey, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 59% — we make it 55%
Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 14 (P(over) 45%)
Line 36.5 rec yds — we project 29 (P(over) 38%)
Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 41%)
Line 14.5 rush attempts — we project 15 (P(over) 51%)
Line 90.5 rush + rec yds — we project 90 (P(over) 49%)
Line 49.5 rush yds — we project 58 (P(over) 60%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 21, under 20 (41 graded)
Receiving yards over 21, under 20 (41 graded)
Receptions over 21, under 20 (41 graded)
Anytime TD over 28, under 13 (41 graded)
Rush attempts over 11, under 6 (17 graded)
Longest reception over 11, under 6 (17 graded)

Our calls on him: Middle of the field 2–0 · Missed tackles 15–13 · Pre-snap motion 13–10 · model 58–49 · Light boxes 0–1 · Red-zone defense 3–0 · Big favourite (6.5+) 2–0 · Starters out on defense 4–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–1 · Short week 1–2 · Explosive plays 1–2

Line vs actual vs our projection

Christian McCaffrey prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 59%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	14.5	14	45% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	36.5	29	38% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	4.5	4	41% / 54%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	14.5	15	51% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush+rec yds	90.5	90	49% / 47%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	49.5	58	60% / 50%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 63%	1	over
2026 W4	Rec yds	41.5	33	38% / 50%	18	under
2026 W4	Rec	4.5	4	44% / 54%	3	under
2026 W4	Rush yds	65.5	64	48% / 50%	52	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	63% TD chance	63% / 71%	1	over
2026 W3	Rec yds	38.5	35	46% / 50%	41	over
2026 W3	Rec	4.5	4	44% / 52%	4	under
2026 W3	Rush yds	56.5	67	60% / 50%	75	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 70%	1	over
2026 W2	Rec yds	38.5	32	40% / 50%	43	over
2026 W2	Rec	4.5	4	37% / 53%	4	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	60.5	85	70% / 51%	23	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	64% TD chance	64% / 60%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	39.5	32	40% / 50%	20	under
2026 W1	Rec	4.5	4	49% / 54%	5	over
2026 W1	Rush yds	59.5	80	70% / 50%	68	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 62%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	16.5	15	45% / 51%	9	under
2025 W18	Rec yds	48.5	36	33% / 50%	34	under
2025 W18	Rec	5.5	4	36% / 52%	6	over
2025 W18	Rush att	18.5	18	45% / 48%	8	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	66.5	71	55% / 49%	23	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	66% TD chance	66% / 71%	1	over
2025 W17	Long rec	16.5	17	51% / 51%	18	over
2025 W17	Rec yds	46.5	37	38% / 50%	41	under
2025 W17	Rec	5.5	4	33% / 47%	4	under
2025 W17	Rush att	17.5	17	47% / 53%	23	over
2025 W17	Rush yds	69.5	73	54% / 51%	140	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	65% TD chance	65% / 67%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	15.5	16	54% / 50%	10	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	40.5	38	46% / 51%	29	under
2025 W16	Rec	4.5	5	50% / 56%	6	over
2025 W16	Rush att	17.5	18	53% / 49%	21	over
2025 W16	Rush yds	62.5	72	59% / 51%	117	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	69% TD chance	69% / 73%	1	over
2025 W15	Long rec	16.5	18	54% / 49%	14	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	41.5	40	48% / 51%	14	under
2025 W15	Rec	5.5	4	31% / 42%	1	under
2025 W15	Rush att	17.5	19	56% / 50%	22	over
2025 W15	Rush yds	65.5	79	62% / 49%	73	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 58%	1	over
2025 W13	Long rec	15.5	14	45% / 49%	12	under
2025 W13	Rec yds	38.5	30	38% / 51%	21	under
2025 W13	Rec	4.5	4	43% / 53%	4	under
2025 W13	Rush att	18.5	18	48% / 47%	20	over
2025 W13	Rush yds	68.5	65	47% / 49%	53	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	68% TD chance	68% / 76%	1	over
2025 W12	Long rec	16.5	18	57% / 50%	19	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	46.5	40	41% / 50%	53	over
2025 W12	Rec	5.5	4	32% / 48%	7	over
2025 W12	Rush att	16.5	17	55% / 46%	24	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	70.5	78	57% / 49%	89	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	66% TD chance	66% / 71%	1	over
2025 W11	Long rec	18.5	19	52% / 49%	15	under
2025 W11	Rec yds	50.5	44	42% / 50%	40	under
2025 W11	Rec	5.5	5	40% / 47%	5	under
2025 W11	Rush att	17.5	17	48% / 51%	13	under
2025 W11	Rush yds	70.5	68	48% / 51%	81	over
2025 W10	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 62%	0	under
2025 W10	Long rec	17.5	17	47% / 49%	19	over
2025 W10	Rec yds	51.5	39	35% / 51%	66	over
2025 W10	Rec	5.5	5	36% / 55%	8	over
2025 W10	Rush att	17.5	16	42% / 51%	12	under
2025 W10	Rush yds	63.5	58	44% / 51%	30	under
2025 W9	Any TD	–	62% TD chance	62% / 69%	1	over
2025 W9	Long rec	17.5	18	51% / 50%	39	over
2025 W9	Rec yds	49.5	42	40% / 50%	67	over
2025 W9	Rec	5.5	4	37% / 52%	5	under
2025 W9	Rush att	18.5	17	42% / 50%	28	over
2025 W9	Rush yds	77.5	66	38% / 51%	106	over
2025 W8	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 59%	0	under
2025 W8	Long rec	16.5	15	40% / 49%	27	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	44.5	34	35% / 51%	43	under
2025 W8	Rec	5.5	5	38% / 51%	3	under
2025 W8	Rush att	17.5	16	44% / 52%	8	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	66.5	56	38% / 50%	25	under
2025 W7	Any TD	–	65% TD chance	65% / 61%	1	over
2025 W7	Long rec	16.5	18	55% / 50%	17	over
2025 W7	Rec yds	45.5	43	47% / 50%	72	over
2025 W7	Rec	5.5	5	42% / 51%	7	over
2025 W7	Rush att	16.5	16	50% / 53%	24	over
2025 W7	Rush yds	65.5	58	42% / 50%	129	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 62%	1	over
2025 W6	Long rec	17.5	17	47% / 49%	23	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	51.5	43	40% / 50%	57	over
2025 W6	Rec	6.5	5	36% / 48%	7	over
2025 W6	Rush att	15.5	17	56% / 51%	17	over
2025 W6	Rush yds	55.5	55	49% / 50%	54	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 53%	1	over
2025 W5	Long rec	17.5	16	41% / 48%	16	under
2025 W5	Rec yds	53.5	43	37% / 50%	82	over
2025 W5	Rec	6.5	6	44% / 55%	8	over
2025 W5	Rush att	15.5	16	54% / 53%	22	over
2025 W5	Rush yds	59.5	50	37% / 50%	57	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	65% TD chance	65% / 65%	1	over
2025 W4	Long rec	15.5	17	58% / 50%	29	over
2025 W4	Rec yds	42.5	45	54% / 50%	92	over
2025 W4	Rec	5.5	6	53% / 52%	6	over
2025 W4	Rush att	17.5	16	41% / 47%	17	under
2025 W4	Rush yds	71.5	65	42% / 50%	49	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 65%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	14.5	15	51% / 52%	20	over
2025 W3	Rec yds	40.5	33	38% / 50%	88	over
2025 W3	Rec	5.5	4.5	36% / 45%	10	over
2025 W3	Rush att	16.5	14	38% / 52%	17	over
2025 W3	Rush yds	70.5	60	39% / 49%	52	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 64%	1	over
2025 W2	Long rec	13.5	13	46% / 52%	14	over
2025 W2	Rec yds	34.5	26	36% / 50%	52	over
2025 W2	Rec	4.5	4	38% / 53%	6	over
2025 W2	Rush att	18.5	15	28% / 48%	13	under
2025 W2	Rush yds	79.5	57	28% / 51%	55	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 56%	0	under
2025 W1	Long rec	13.5	11	41% / 49%	25	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	30.5	19	29% / 48%	73	over
2025 W1	Rec	3.5	3	32% / 53%	9	over
2025 W1	Rush att	14.5	12	34% / 49%	22	over
2025 W1	Rush yds	63.5	55	41% / 50%	69	over
2024 W13	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 58%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	33.5	22	31% / 51%	14	under
2024 W13	Rec	4.5	3	31% / 46%	2	under
2024 W13	Rush yds	64.5	50	31% / 50%	53	under
2024 W12	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 63%	0	under
2024 W12	Rec yds	30.5	21	33% / 51%	37	over
2024 W12	Rec	4.5	3	30% / 43%	3	under
2024 W12	Rush yds	77.5	54	27% / 50%	31	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 71%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	38.5	25	30% / 50%	27	under
2024 W11	Rec	4.5	3	28% / 51%	4	under
2024 W11	Rush yds	83.5	62	29% / 50%	79	under
2024 W10	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 70%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	26.5	19	37% / 50%	68	over
2024 W10	Rec	3.5	2	28% / 49%	6	over
2024 W10	Rush yds	66.5	58	41% / 51%	39	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	73% TD chance	73% / 80%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	31.5	36	56% / 50%	27	under
2023 W17	Rec	4.5	4	42% / 43%	4	under
2023 W17	Rush yds	88.5	129	74% / 50%	64	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	68% TD chance	68% / 72%	1	over
2023 W16	Rec yds	31.5	37	58% / 48%	28	under
2023 W16	Rec	3.5	4	63% / 58%	6	over
2023 W16	Rush yds	83.5	97	60% / 51%	103	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	70% TD chance	70% / 78%	1	over
2023 W15	Rec yds	27.5	30	54% / 51%	72	over
2023 W15	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 54%	5	over
2023 W15	Rush yds	89.5	116	68% / 52%	115	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	69% TD chance	69% / 80%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	29.5	35	57% / 51%	8	under
2023 W14	Rec	3.5	4	58% / 57%	1	under
2023 W14	Rush yds	82.5	104	66% / 50%	145	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 67%	1	over
2023 W13	Rec yds	32.5	30	47% / 51%	40	over
2023 W13	Rec	4.5	4	46% / 51%	3	under
2023 W13	Rush yds	72.5	75	53% / 50%	93	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 71%	1	over
2023 W12	Rec yds	33.5	29	43% / 50%	25	under
2023 W12	Rec	4.5	4	40% / 44%	5	over
2023 W12	Rush yds	75.5	73	47% / 50%	114	over
2023 W11	Any TD	–	65% TD chance	65% / 71%	1	over
2023 W11	Rec yds	31.5	32	50% / 50%	25	under
2023 W11	Rec	3.5	4	55% / 59%	5	over
2023 W11	Rush yds	69.5	70	50% / 50%	78	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 62%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	31.5	31	49% / 50%	47	over
2023 W10	Rec	4.5	4	45% / 45%	6	over
2023 W10	Rush yds	66.5	65	49% / 50%	95	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 63%	1	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	28.5	25	43% / 50%	64	over
2023 W8	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 52%	6	over
2023 W8	Rush yds	75.5	78	53% / 50%	54	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	64% TD chance	64% / 59%	1	over
2023 W7	Rec yds	27.5	23	42% / 51%	51	over
2023 W7	Rec	3.5	3	47% / 52%	3	under
2023 W7	Rush yds	62.5	71	58% / 50%	45	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	62% TD chance	62% / 60%	1	over
2023 W6	Rec yds	27.5	19	33% / 50%	9	under
2023 W6	Rec	3.5	3	38% / 54%	3	under
2023 W6	Rush yds	75.5	76	50% / 50%	43	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 62%	1	over
2023 W5	Rec yds	33.5	27	40% / 51%	27	under
2023 W5	Rec	4.5	4	43% / 46%	2	under
2023 W5	Rush yds	77.5	90	61% / 51%	51	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 66%	1	over
2023 W4	Rec yds	30.5	27	44% / 51%	71	over
2023 W4	Rec	4.5	4	36% / 43%	7	over
2023 W4	Rush yds	91.5	93	51% / 50%	106	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 64%	1	over
2023 W3	Rec yds	30.5	23	35% / 48%	34	over
2023 W3	Rec	3.5	3	47% / 56%	5	over
2023 W3	Rush yds	80.5	107	68% / 51%	85	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 59%	1	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	29.5	20	34% / 51%	19	under
2023 W2	Rec	3.5	3	41% / 57%	3	under
2023 W2	Rush yds	70.5	91	66% / 50%	116	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 52%	1	over
2023 W1	Rec yds	33.5	–	– / 51%	17	under
2023 W1	Rec	4.5	–	– / 44%	3	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	57.5	–	– / 49%	152	over

Our calls

2026 W5 Under 35.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Under 53.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Under 53.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W4 Under 41.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Over 65.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 65.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 38.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 56.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 60.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 60.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 60.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Over 60.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Under 59.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 59.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W18 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 66.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 66.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 66.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 62.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 62.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 62.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 65.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 65.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 65.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 68.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 16.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 16.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 70.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 70.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 70.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 70.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 70.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 70.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology