WR · GB · 132 lines since 2023
Christian Watson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Christian Watson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 37% — we make it 38%
- Line 23.5 yds longest rec — we project 26 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 61.5 rec yds — we project 57 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 45%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 20, under 17 (37 graded)
- Receptions over 17, under 20 (37 graded)
- Anytime TD over 13, under 25 (38 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 4 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 2–3 · model 33–17 · Short week 1–4 · Middle of the field 2–4 · Explosive plays 2–5 · Pre-snap motion 2–2 · Freezing 0–3 · Wind 15+ mph 1–3 · Play action 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 37% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 23.5 | 26 | 57% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 57 | 46% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 53 | 39% / 50% | 47 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 70 | 49% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 46 | 37% / 51% | 41 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 55 | 48% / 50% | 147 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 59% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 54% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 37 | 52% / 50% | 113 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 25.5 | 22 | 42% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 42 | 38% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 24.5 | 23 | 47% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 44 | 42% / 51% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 24.5 | 27 | 56% / 49% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 54 | 51% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 25.5 | 24 | 47% / 51% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 51 | 45% / 50% | 80 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 24.5 | 22 | 44% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 40 | 42% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 41% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 53% / 52% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 40 | 51% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 22.5 | 22 | 49% / 52% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 41 | 47% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 55% / 51% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 35 | 50% / 51% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 14.5 | 21 | 67% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 35 | 68% / 49% | 85 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 71% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 33% | – | void |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 36 | 38% / 47% | – | void |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 45 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 50 | 55% / 49% | 56 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 47 | 46% / 50% | 114 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 40 | 46% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 33 | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 25 | 41% / 50% | 150 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 25 | 38% / 49% | 37 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 23 | 43% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 22 | 40% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 13 | 32% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 20% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 31 | 47% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 23 | 62% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 70% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 31 | 59% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 42 | 52% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | – | void |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 37% | – | void |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 40 | 49% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 41% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 36 | 44% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 37 | 49% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 34 | 46% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 37 | 46% / 51% | 37 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 36 | 38% / 49% | 33 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 41 | 39% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 16 | 15% / 51% | 91 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 13% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 43.5 | – | – / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 31% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 68.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 71.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 60.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 53.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 53.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 53.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 53.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 53.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 53.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 57.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 38.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 35.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) void
- 2024 W16 Under 47.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 43.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 45.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 45.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 40.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 34.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 28.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 28.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 33.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology