QB · HOU · 284 lines since 2023
C.J. Stroud Player Props
Closing consensus lines for C.J. Stroud, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 11% — we make it 11%
- Line 31.5 pass attempts — we project 32 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 20.5 completions — we project 20 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 42%)
- Line 236.5 pass yds — we project 221 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 9.5 rush yds — we project 12 (P(over) 56%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 30, under 23 (53 graded)
- Passing TDs over 26, under 34 (60 graded)
- Rushing yards over 34, under 27 (61 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 55 (62 graded)
- Pass attempts over 5, under 9 (14 graded)
- Completions over 7, under 7 (14 graded)
- Rush attempts over 8, under 6 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: High total (48.5+) 1–2 · model 52–46 · Pressure 7–4 · Big favourite (6.5+) 3–1 · Low total (40.5 or less) 9–6 · Starters out on defense 5–3 · Freezing 1–1 · Dome team outdoors 8–6 · Short week 2–0 · Play action 2–1 · Man coverage 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 50% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 49% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 221 | 44% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 12 | 56% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 255 | 55% / 50% | 347 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 13 | 57% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 239.5 | 237 | 49% / 50% | 167 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 12 | 54% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 228 | 52% / 50% | 353 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 11 | 50% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 213 | 45% / 50% | 274 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 9.8 | 48% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Pass att | 30.5 | 34 | 68% / 49% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Cmp | 19.5 | 22 | 66% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass yds | 205.5 | 244 | 67% / 51% | 169 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 2.5 | 4 | 72% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 12 | 68% / 54% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 51% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 54% / 46% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 219.5 | 206 | 44% / 51% | 244 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 9.3 | 41% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 55% / 47% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 56% / 53% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 243 | 57% / 51% | 187 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 17 | 66% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 53% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 49% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 231.5 | 240 | 54% / 50% | 260 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 14 | 60% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 34.5 | 33 | 44% / 47% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 50% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 230.5 | 203 | 37% / 50% | 203 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 12 | 47% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | – | – / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 33.5 | – | – / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 22.5 | – | – / 46% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 234.5 | – | – / 50% | 276 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 3.5 | – | – / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 14.5 | – | – / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 48% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 53% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 226.5 | 213 | 43% / 50% | 79 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 53% / 53% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 224 | 54% / 51% | 318 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 51% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 50% / 48% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 204 | 38% / 50% | 229 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 13 | 40% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 30.5 | 33 | 61% / 48% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 19.5 | 21 | 60% / 52% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 39% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 212.5 | 224 | 56% / 50% | 244 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 17 | 55% / 53% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 61% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 57% / 48% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 223 | 53% / 50% | 233 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 18 | 58% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 31.5 | 33 | 58% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 55% / 48% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 223 | 49% / 50% | 204 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 52% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 47% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 230.5 | 230 | 50% / 50% | 207 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 14 | 51% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 31.5 | 33 | 59% / 52% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 54% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 212 | 41% / 52% | 188 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 11 | 48% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 249.5 | 234 | 43% / 49% | 185 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 10 | 43% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 37% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 208 | 38% / 50% | 244 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 9.6 | 44% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 257.5 | 253 | 48% / 50% | 131 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 12 | 58% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 262.5 | 251 | 46% / 50% | 242 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 15 | 58% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 47% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 227 | 44% / 50% | 247 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 13 | 61% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 233.5 | 215 | 43% / 50% | 257 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 14 | 62% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 241 | 53% / 50% | 232 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 11 | 39% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 221.5 | 209 | 43% / 48% | 191 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 8.2 | 46% / 51% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 238 | 50% / 51% | 285 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 13 | 59% / 50% | -10 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 259.5 | 240 | 41% / 50% | 86 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 9.7 | 54% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 235.5 | 233 | 49% / 50% | 192 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 11 | 57% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.5 | 50% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 260.5 | 257 | 49% / 51% | 331 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 9.6 | 51% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 267.5 | 258 | 47% / 50% | 345 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 10 | 59% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 262.5 | 246 | 43% / 50% | 215 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 8.5 | 57% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 264.5 | 249 | 43% / 50% | 260 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 11 | 58% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 279.5 | 260 | 42% / 50% | 234 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 12 | 60% / 48% | 13 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Pass yds | 265.5 | 255 | 45% / 51% | 264 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 9.1 | 59% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 9.1 | 59% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass yds | 261.5 | 260 | 49% / 51% | 213 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 10 | 61% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 10 | 58% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Pass yds | 210.5 | 191 | 41% / 50% | 91 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 11 | 52% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 11 | 49% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Pass yds | 264.5 | 263 | 49% / 50% | 274 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 12 | 59% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 12 | 59% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Pass yds | 273.5 | 239 | 37% / 50% | 304 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 5.5 | 50% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 5.5 | 46% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Pass yds | 262.5 | 229 | 37% / 50% | 336 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 283.5 | 9.6 | 0% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 9.6 | 47% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Pass yds | 256.5 | 214 | 30% / 49% | 356 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 6.8 | 51% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 265.5 | 6.8 | 0% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 209 | 34% / 50% | 470 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 209 | 36% / 49% | 470 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 8.7 | 57% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 8.7 | 57% / 49% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Pass yds | 238.5 | 221 | 42% / 50% | 140 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 9.5 | 61% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 9.5 | 61% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 36% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Pass yds | 221.5 | 201 | 39% / 50% | 199 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 8.3 | 42% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 215 | 36% / 49% | 249 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 11 | 41% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 213 | 38% / 50% | 306 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 11 | 57% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 36% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 196 | 31% / 50% | 280 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 196 | 31% / 50% | 280 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 11 | 74% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 11 | 74% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 32% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 33% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Pass yds | 202.5 | 185 | 40% / 51% | 384 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Pass yds | 202.5 | 185 | 40% / 49% | 384 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 15 | 61% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 15 | 61% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | – | – / 65% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | – | – / 65% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass yds | 197.5 | – | – / 50% | 242 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Pass yds | 196.5 | – | – / 50% | 242 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 12.5 | – | – / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 13.5 | – | – / 51% | 20 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 244.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 239.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 222.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 205.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 205.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 219.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 219.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 227.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 227.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 231.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 230.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 230.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 230.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 20.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 226.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 226.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 226.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 226.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 20.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 214.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 227.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 227.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 212.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 212.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 212.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 216.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology