TE · LAR · 125 lines since 2023
Colby Parkinson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Colby Parkinson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 31% — we make it 31%
- Line 10.5 yds longest rec — we project 13 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 16.5 rec yds — we project 19 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 60%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 18, under 15 (33 graded)
- Receptions over 14, under 12 (26 graded)
- Anytime TD over 9, under 43 (52 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 4 (8 graded)
Our calls on him: model 23–29 · Dome team outdoors 3–3 · Missed tackles 0–2 · Pre-snap motion 2–1 · Short week 3–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–2 · Starters out on defense 5–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 31% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 13 | 57% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 19 | 54% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 61% | – | … |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 17 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 22 | 39% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 26% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 34 | 71% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 53% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 28 | 41% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 16.5 | 13 | 38% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 22 | 27% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 23% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 48% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 24 | 42% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 48% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 20 | 39% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 12.5 | 11 | 45% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 15 | 34% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.8 | 44% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 12 | 37% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 24% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.3 | 50% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 12 | 53% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | – | void |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.6 | 54% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | – | void |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.5 | 48% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 10 | 57% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 15 | 54% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 21 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 32 | 52% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 31 | 43% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 24 | 34% / 49% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 54% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 18 | 31% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 15 | 23% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 18% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 13 | 24% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 13% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 11 | 28% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 8.2 | 52% / 51% | 38 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.4 | 47% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 66% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 8.3 | 50% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 11 | 55% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 18 | 62% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 21 | 63% / 49% | 26 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 16 | 64% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 37% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 24 | 77% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 13 | 47% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7.0 | 43% / 51% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 7.5 | – | – / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 31% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 16.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 16.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 33.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 29.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 24.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 24.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 10.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 24.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 30.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 30.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 36.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 29.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 29.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology