TE · CHI · 177 lines since 2023
Cole Kmet Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Cole Kmet, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 14% — we make it 8%
- Line 9.5 rec yds — we project 10 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 43%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 27, under 25 (52 graded)
- Receptions over 27, under 25 (52 graded)
- Anytime TD over 10, under 44 (54 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: model 33–32 · Starters out on defense 4–7 · Freezing 2–2 · Pre-snap motion 6–3 · Wind 15+ mph 2–2 · Missed tackles 6–2 · Play action 1–1 · Short week 2–2 · Middle of the field 3–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 14% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 10 | 52% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 11 | 53% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 11 | 54% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 17 | 56% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 35 | 78% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 81% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 54% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 21 | 55% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 54% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 24 | 52% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 49% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 43% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 9.5 | 11 | 54% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 15 | 57% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 8.5 | 9.0 | 52% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 13 | 53% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 56% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 19 | 57% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 7.5 | 10 | 59% / 52% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 14 | 58% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 35% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 7.5 | 13 | 66% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 18 | 65% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 56% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 22 | 57% / 47% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 9.5 | 14 | 63% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 21 | 62% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 11.5 | 15 | 63% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 26 | 67% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 72% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 50% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 43% / 49% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 54% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 21 | 53% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 55% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 20 | 51% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 9.5 | 14 | 69% / 48% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 26 | 66% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 79% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 16 | 48% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 60% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 19 | 53% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 22 | 54% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 24 | 50% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 27 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 26 | 41% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 23 | 48% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 20 | 42% / 51% | 42 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 23 | 44% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 28 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 31 | 41% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 31 | 47% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 26 | 50% / 51% | 57 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 63% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 29 | 51% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 24 | 55% / 51% | 97 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 22 | 57% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 36 | 69% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 71% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 35 | 49% / 50% | 107 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 34 | 47% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 64% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 34 | 51% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 32 | 42% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 35 | 44% / 48% | 20 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 64% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 31 | 44% / 53% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 27 | 44% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 26 | 49% / 48% | 79 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 58% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 31 | 52% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 53 | 72% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 6 | 80% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 41 | 61% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 69% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 39 | 66% / 51% | 85 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 79% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 30 | 51% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 27 | 45% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 27.5 | – | – / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 59% | 5 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W2 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 17.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 11.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 11.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 11.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 15.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 17.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 13.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 16.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 17.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 17.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 19.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 31.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 31.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 24.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 26.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 26.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology