TE · CHI · 80 lines since 2023
Colston Loveland Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Colston Loveland, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 31% — we make it 27%
- Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 17 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 39.5 rec yds — we project 32 (P(over) 40%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 44%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 11, under 9 (20 graded)
- Receptions over 13, under 7 (20 graded)
- Anytime TD over 5, under 15 (20 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: model 16–17 · Pre-snap motion 4–1 · Middle of the field 2–1 · Starters out on defense 4–0 · Freezing 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 55% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 32 | 40% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 55% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 27 | 41% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 24 | 38% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 35 | 32% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 29% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 64 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 65% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 18.5 | 21 | 56% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 40 | 46% / 50% | 91 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 54% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 54% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 40 | 48% / 51% | 94 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 18.5 | 19 | 51% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 39 | 44% / 52% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 27 | 47% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 44% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 27 | 38% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 43% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 24 | 38% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 27 | 49% / 49% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 51% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 22 | 45% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 53% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 48% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 23 | 46% / 49% | 118 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 47% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 25 | 37% / 51% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.6 | 44% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 11 | 37% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 11.5 | 7.1 | 36% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 8.4 | 32% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 12.5 | 4.3 | 27% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 4.6 | 19% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 12.5 | 5.1 | 26% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 5.9 | 23% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 15% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 14.5 | – | – / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 27.5 | – | – / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 55% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 32.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 51.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 44.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 44.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 44.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 29.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 29.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 35.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 30.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 27.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 26.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology