Edgehalla

RB · LV · 79 lines since 2023

Connor Heyward Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Connor Heyward, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 8% — we make it 13%

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 3, under 2 (5 graded)
  • Receptions over 3, under 2 (5 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 5, under 63 (68 graded)

Our calls on him: model 3–7

Line vs actual vs our projection

Connor Heyward prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 8%–…
2026 W4Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 7%0under
2026 W3Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 7%0under
2026 W2Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 6%0under
2026 W1Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 8%0under
2025 W18Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 10%1over
2025 W17Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 9%0under
2025 W16Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 13%0under
2025 W15Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%1over
2025 W14Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 5%0under
2025 W12Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 4%0under
2025 W11Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%0under
2025 W10Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 6%0under
2025 W9Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 8%0under
2025 W8Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 8%0under
2025 W7Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 10%0under
2025 W6Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 4%1over
2025 W4Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 3%0under
2025 W3Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 4%0under
2025 W2Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 4%0under
2025 W1Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 4%0under
2024 W18Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2024 W17Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2024 W16Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 6%0under
2024 W15Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 5%0under
2024 W14Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 6%0under
2024 W13Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 5%0under
2024 W12Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2024 W11Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 6%0under
2024 W10Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%0under
2024 W8Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 6%0under
2024 W7Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 7%0under
2024 W6Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2024 W5Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 5%1over
2024 W5Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 2%1over
2024 W4Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 2%0under
2024 W4Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 5%0under
2024 W3Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%0under
2024 W3Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 2%0under
2024 W2Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 2%0under
2024 W2Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 4%0under
2024 W1Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 6%0under
2024 W1Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 2%0under
2023 W18Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 7%0under
2023 W18Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 2%0under
2023 W17Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 7%0under
2023 W16Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 8%0under
2023 W16Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 2%0under
2023 W15Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 2%0under
2023 W15Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 8%0under
2023 W15Rec yds3.57.463% / 50%0under
2023 W15Rec0.5176% / 53%0under
2023 W14Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 8%0under
2023 W14Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 2%0under
2023 W14Rec yds6.56.650% / 49%15over
2023 W14Rec0.5174% / 63%2over
2023 W13Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 10%0under
2023 W13Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 2%0under
2023 W12Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 11%0under
2023 W12Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 2%0under
2023 W11Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 12%0under
2023 W11Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 2%0under
2023 W10Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 20%0under
2023 W10Rec yds21.59.221% / 49%32over
2023 W10Rec2.5227% / 44%3over
2023 W9Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 1%0under
2023 W9Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 19%0under
2023 W9Rec yds23.59.620% / 49%16under
2023 W9Rec2.5226% / 51%2under
2023 W8Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 17%0under
2023 W8Rec yds22.57.317% / 50%24over
2023 W8Rec2.5121% / 49%5over
2023 W7Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 14%0under
2023 W5Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 10%0under
2023 W4Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 11%0under
2023 W3Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 10%0under
2023 W2Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 7%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 10%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 1%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Over 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W14 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W10 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W9 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology