WR · SEA · 153 lines since 2023
Cooper Kupp Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Cooper Kupp, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 22% — we make it 22%
- Line 13.5 yds longest rec — we project 17 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 24.5 rec yds — we project 27 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 48%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 17, under 27 (44 graded)
- Receptions over 16, under 28 (44 graded)
- Anytime TD over 13, under 31 (44 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Middle of the field 3–0 · Pre-snap motion 6–8 · model 42–35 · Short week 4–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Missed tackles 4–6 · Starters out on defense 2–3 · Freezing 1–0 · Dome team outdoors 4–3 · Play action 1–0 · Explosive plays 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 17 | 61% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 27 | 55% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 29 | 58% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 27 | 59% / 49% | 46 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 39% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 30 | 59% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 44 | 67% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 70% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 58% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 34 | 52% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 57% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 33 | 52% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 57% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 31 | 48% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 40% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 21 | 61% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 35 | 54% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 56% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 32 | 51% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 58% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 33 | 53% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 57% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 35 | 52% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 54% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 34 | 49% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 15.5 | 19 | 59% / 49% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 30 | 57% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | – | void |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 55% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 39 | 51% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 62% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 50 | 56% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 17.5 | 21 | 59% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 45 | 57% / 52% | 59 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 58% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 48 | 57% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 19.5 | 25 | 66% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 63 | 66% / 51% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 62% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 58% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 41 | 59% / 50% | 90 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 17.5 | 26 | 76% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 80 | 81% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 7 | 87% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 46 | 43% / 49% | 29 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 25% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 51 | 44% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 56 | 42% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 33% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 53 | 37% / 50% | 92 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 29% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 62 | 41% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 34% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 51 | 35% / 51% | 60 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 26% / 53% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 46 | 31% / 50% | 106 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 6.5 | 4 | 24% / 45% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 54 | 38% / 52% | 80 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 26% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 50 | 36% / 50% | 104 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 6.5 | 4 | 23% / 44% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 63 | 47% / 50% | 51 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 40% / 53% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 83.5 | 62 | 33% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 7.5 | 5 | 24% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 58 | 42% / 52% | 110 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 56% | 14 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 66 | 48% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 60 | 39% / 50% | 52 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 64 | 41% / 51% | 111 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 58% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 42 | 47% / 50% | 115 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 37 | 33% / 49% | 39 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 52 | 35% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 6.5 | 4 | 13% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 72 | 43% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 7.5 | 5 | 19% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 63 | 47% / 50% | 48 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 83.5 | 60 | 33% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 7.5 | 5 | 22% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 92.5 | 85 | 44% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 7.5 | 6 | 38% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 86.5 | 71 | 38% / 51% | 148 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 7.5 | 5 | 23% / 48% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 60.5 | – | – / 51% | 118 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | – | – / 51% | 8 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 25.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 32.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 32.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 32.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 32.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 31.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 33.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 34.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 34.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 38.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 44.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 38.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 38.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 41.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 41.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 41.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 57.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 57.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 57.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology