WR · DEN · 185 lines since 2023
Courtland Sutton Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Courtland Sutton, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 34% — we make it 34%
- Line 18.5 yds longest rec — we project 22 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 38.5 rec yds — we project 45 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 49%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 32, under 22 (54 graded)
- Receptions over 24, under 30 (54 graded)
- Anytime TD over 24, under 31 (55 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 3–1 · model 31–42 · Short week 4–1 · Explosive plays 2–2 · Starters out on defense 9–3 · Freezing 2–1 · Middle of the field 4–5 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Red-zone defense 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 34% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 61% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 45 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 43 | 55% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 41 | 55% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 51 | 60% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 52 | 62% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 65% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 21.5 | 27 | 66% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 65 | 58% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 23.5 | 28 | 61% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 68 | 55% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 22.5 | 28 | 64% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 66 | 55% / 51% | 86 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 57% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 56 | 54% / 50% | 113 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 44% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 19.5 | 25 | 64% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 52 | 52% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 61% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 54 | 55% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 57% / 49% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 55 | 56% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 66% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 22.5 | 29 | 65% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 67 | 58% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 22.5 | 24 | 55% / 49% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 59 | 52% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 23.5 | 29 | 65% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 70 | 55% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 22.5 | 26 | 60% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 61 | 51% / 51% | 87 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 22.5 | 28 | 64% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 69 | 56% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 60% / 51% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 61 | 54% / 50% | 99 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 22.5 | 29 | 68% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 75 | 57% / 48% | 81 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 43% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 20.5 | 25 | 65% / 51% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 62 | 56% / 49% | 118 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 23.5 | 26 | 58% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 66 | 53% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 22.5 | 33 | 77% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 104 | 79% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 8 | 82% / 52% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 82.5 | 66 | 38% / 51% | 98 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 53% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 69 | 49% / 49% | 55 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 47% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 65 | 50% / 51% | 50 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 45% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 68 | 47% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 61 | 43% / 52% | 102 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 64 | 55% / 48% | 97 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 62 | 53% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 49 | 54% / 51% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 64% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 53 | 53% / 51% | 122 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 59% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 46 | 53% / 51% | 100 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 47% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 47 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 51 | 53% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 52 | 53% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 37 | 45% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 38 | 47% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 48 | 57% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 49 | 52% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 65% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 40 | 50% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | – | – / 48% | – | void |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 58 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 66% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 54 | 49% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 58 | 50% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 55 | 45% / 49% | 77 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 43 | 49% / 49% | 61 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 56 | 55% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 41% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 47 | 51% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 65% / 54% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 51 | 53% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 71% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 51 | 52% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 64% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 52 | 57% / 49% | 46 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 72% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 56 | 62% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 73% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 63 | 57% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 62% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 47 | 49% / 50% | 91 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 66% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 39 | 39% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 54.5 | – | – / 52% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 59% | 4 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 62.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 21.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 51.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 51.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 49.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 57.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 63.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 61.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 82.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 82.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 82.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 82.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 64.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 64.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 72.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 69.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology