QB · DAL · 233 lines since 2023

Dak Prescott Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Dak Prescott, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 17% — we make it 17%
Line 34.5 pass attempts — we project 35 (P(over) 51%)
Line 23.5 completions — we project 23 (P(over) 44%)
Line 2.5 pass TDs — we project 2 (P(over) 33%)
Line 268.5 pass yds — we project 284 (P(over) 56%)
Line 9.5 rush yds — we project 14 (P(over) 62%)

Over/under record by market

Passing yards over 26, under 19 (45 graded)
Passing TDs over 24, under 21 (45 graded)
Rushing yards over 21, under 24 (45 graded)
Anytime TD over 5, under 41 (46 graded)
Pass attempts over 10, under 6 (16 graded)
Completions over 7, under 9 (16 graded)
Rush attempts over 8, under 6 (14 graded)

Our calls on him: Big favourite (6.5+) 0–1 · Short week 1–3 · model 47–41 · High total (48.5+) 14–16 · Dome team outdoors 12–5 · Starters out on defense 4–4 · Man coverage 1–3 · Pressure 6–0 · Wind 15+ mph 2–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 2–2 · Two-high shells 0–1 · Low total (40.5 or less) 0–2

Line vs actual vs our projection

Dak Prescott prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 17%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass att	34.5	35	51% / 48%	–	…
2026 W5	Cmp	23.5	23	44% / 51%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass TDs	2.5	2	33% / 39%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass yds	268.5	284	56% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	9.5	14	62% / 50%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 14%	0	under
2026 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	45% / 53%	1	under
2026 W4	Pass yds	268.5	238	37% / 50%	335	over
2026 W4	Rush yds	10.5	11	53% / 50%	7	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 15%	0	under
2026 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	2	53% / 58%	1	under
2026 W3	Pass yds	265.5	263	49% / 50%	276	over
2026 W3	Rush yds	12.5	11	46% / 50%	19	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 17%	0	under
2026 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	2	53% / 63%	4	over
2026 W2	Pass yds	266.5	257	47% / 50%	279	over
2026 W2	Rush yds	8.5	13	60% / 50%	26	over
2026 W1	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 14%	0	under
2026 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	2	51% / 56%	2	over
2026 W1	Pass yds	260.5	244	44% / 50%	175	under
2026 W1	Rush yds	7.5	11	61% / 51%	14	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 18%	0	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 19%	0	under
2025 W17	Pass att	34.5	35	50% / 49%	37	over
2025 W17	Cmp	23.5	23	48% / 49%	19	under
2025 W17	Pass TDs	2.5	2	35% / 37%	2	under
2025 W17	Pass yds	272.5	293	57% / 50%	307	over
2025 W17	Rush att	2.5	3	69% / 56%	4	over
2025 W17	Rush yds	7.5	13	66% / 50%	24	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 17%	0	under
2025 W16	Pass att	35.5	35	47% / 47%	30	under
2025 W16	Cmp	23.5	23	47% / 49%	21	under
2025 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 55%	2	over
2025 W16	Pass yds	252.5	264	54% / 50%	244	under
2025 W16	Rush att	2.5	3	64% / 59%	2	under
2025 W16	Rush yds	8.5	9.3	53% / 50%	14	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 14%	0	under
2025 W15	Pass att	35.5	34	41% / 49%	38	over
2025 W15	Cmp	23.5	23	43% / 51%	23	under
2025 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	2	58% / 64%	0	under
2025 W15	Pass yds	264.5	257	46% / 50%	294	over
2025 W15	Rush att	3.5	4	55% / 43%	1	under
2025 W15	Rush yds	9.5	13	59% / 48%	2	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 16%	0	under
2025 W14	Pass att	35.5	36	54% / 51%	47	over
2025 W14	Cmp	23.5	24	54% / 53%	31	over
2025 W14	Pass TDs	1.5	2	56% / 62%	1	under
2025 W14	Pass yds	278.5	283	52% / 50%	376	over
2025 W14	Rush att	2.5	3	69% / 53%	3	over
2025 W14	Rush yds	10.5	11	53% / 50%	14	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 14%	0	under
2025 W13	Pass att	36.5	34	38% / 49%	39	over
2025 W13	Cmp	24.5	23	40% / 52%	27	over
2025 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 57%	2	over
2025 W13	Pass yds	264.5	259	48% / 50%	320	over
2025 W13	Rush att	2.5	3	66% / 52%	3	over
2025 W13	Rush yds	11.5	10	47% / 50%	-2	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 12%	1	over
2025 W12	Pass att	35.5	34	44% / 50%	36	over
2025 W12	Cmp	23.5	23	46% / 47%	23	under
2025 W12	Pass TDs	1.5	1	49% / 52%	2	over
2025 W12	Pass yds	244.5	237	47% / 48%	354	over
2025 W12	Rush att	2.5	3	67% / 50%	5	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	10.5	10	49% / 50%	9	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 12%	0	under
2025 W11	Pass att	35.5	34	44% / 49%	33	under
2025 W11	Cmp	24.5	23	39% / 47%	25	over
2025 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 62%	4	over
2025 W11	Pass yds	257.5	261	52% / 50%	268	over
2025 W11	Rush att	2.5	4	73% / 58%	4	over
2025 W11	Rush yds	10.5	14	60% / 48%	-4	under
2025 W9	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 13%	0	under
2025 W9	Pass att	36.5	36	45% / 49%	39	over
2025 W9	Cmp	25.5	24	39% / 50%	24	under
2025 W9	Pass TDs	2.5	2	36% / 39%	1	under
2025 W9	Pass yds	270.5	286	55% / 51%	250	under
2025 W9	Rush att	2.5	3	67% / 52%	4	over
2025 W9	Rush yds	7.5	14	67% / 51%	34	over
2025 W8	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 12%	0	under
2025 W8	Pass att	36.5	35	40% / 48%	31	under
2025 W8	Cmp	23.5	24	51% / 52%	19	under
2025 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 54%	0	under
2025 W8	Pass yds	253.5	254	50% / 52%	188	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	6.5	8.5	57% / 49%	31	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 16%	0	under
2025 W7	Pass att	36.5	35	42% / 47%	30	under
2025 W7	Cmp	24.5	23	45% / 50%	21	under
2025 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	2	59% / 63%	3	over
2025 W7	Pass yds	270.5	275	52% / 50%	264	under
2025 W7	Rush yds	6.5	11	63% / 50%	7	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 14%	0	under
2025 W6	Pass att	33.5	34	51% / 50%	34	over
2025 W6	Cmp	23.5	23	46% / 46%	25	over
2025 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	1	50% / 54%	3	over
2025 W6	Pass yds	244.5	252	54% / 50%	261	over
2025 W6	Rush att	2.5	3	58% / 51%	2	under
2025 W6	Rush yds	6.5	11	65% / 50%	-1	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 13%	0	under
2025 W5	Pass att	34.5	34	48% / 48%	29	under
2025 W5	Cmp	22.5	23	55% / 53%	18	under
2025 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 54%	4	over
2025 W5	Pass yds	240.5	239	49% / 49%	237	under
2025 W5	Rush att	2.5	2	39% / 40%	7	over
2025 W5	Rush yds	4.5	7.2	60% / 49%	28	over
2025 W4	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 9%	1	over
2025 W4	Pass att	36.5	35	44% / 51%	40	over
2025 W4	Cmp	24.5	24	45% / 49%	31	over
2025 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	39% / 43%	3	over
2025 W4	Pass yds	236.5	227	45% / 50%	319	over
2025 W4	Rush att	2.5	2	40% / 41%	1	under
2025 W4	Rush yds	4.5	6.4	57% / 51%	2	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 16%	0	under
2025 W3	Pass att	35.5	34	43% / 47%	40	over
2025 W3	Cmp	23.5	22	43% / 50%	31	over
2025 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	46% / 56%	1	under
2025 W3	Pass yds	264.5	254	45% / 50%	251	under
2025 W3	Rush att	2.5	3	55% / 49%	0	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	5.5	12	68% / 50%	0	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	5% TD chance	5% / 14%	0	under
2025 W2	Pass att	33.5	32	45% / 50%	52	over
2025 W2	Cmp	22.5	21	40% / 49%	38	over
2025 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 56%	2	over
2025 W2	Pass yds	250.5	238	45% / 51%	361	over
2025 W2	Rush att	2.5	1	22% / 47%	3	over
2025 W2	Rush yds	3.5	3.7	51% / 52%	17	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 11%	0	under
2025 W1	Pass att	36.5	–	– / 50%	34	under
2025 W1	Cmp	23.5	–	– / 49%	21	under
2025 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 46%	0	under
2025 W1	Pass yds	248.5	–	– / 50%	188	under
2025 W1	Rush att	2.5	–	– / 39%	1	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	6.5	–	– / 52%	3	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 17%	0	under
2024 W9	Pass TDs	1.5	1	48% / 55%	1	under
2024 W9	Pass yds	267.5	266	49% / 50%	133	under
2024 W9	Rush yds	6.5	7.9	55% / 51%	30	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 15%	0	under
2024 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	1	40% / 46%	2	over
2024 W8	Pass yds	250.5	242	47% / 50%	243	under
2024 W8	Rush yds	6.5	6.1	48% / 49%	-1	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 19%	0	under
2024 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	1	49% / 58%	0	under
2024 W6	Pass yds	282.5	278	49% / 50%	178	under
2024 W6	Rush yds	8.5	7.3	46% / 51%	1	under
2024 W5	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 15%	0	under
2024 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 44%	2	over
2024 W5	Pass yds	241.5	216	38% / 50%	352	over
2024 W5	Rush yds	8.5	7.4	46% / 50%	3	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 18%	0	under
2024 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	2	51% / 59%	2	over
2024 W4	Pass yds	259.5	265	52% / 50%	221	under
2024 W4	Rush yds	9.5	11	54% / 49%	-1	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 17%	1	over
2024 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 52%	2	over
2024 W3	Pass yds	261.5	237	40% / 50%	379	over
2024 W3	Rush yds	10.5	8.8	45% / 49%	7	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 24%	0	under
2024 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 57%	1	under
2024 W2	Pass yds	259.5	254	48% / 51%	293	over
2024 W2	Rush yds	10.5	11	51% / 50%	12	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 13%	0	under
2024 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	1	36% / 44%	1	under
2024 W1	Pass yds	246.5	221	39% / 50%	179	under
2024 W1	Rush yds	12.5	10	42% / 49%	3	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 29%	0	under
2023 W18	Pass TDs	1.5	2	61% / 64%	4	over
2023 W18	Pass yds	274.5	308	61% / 49%	279	over
2023 W18	Rush yds	11.5	16	62% / 49%	0	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 22%	0	under
2023 W17	Pass TDs	2.5	2	36% / 42%	2	under
2023 W17	Pass yds	286.5	287	50% / 50%	345	over
2023 W17	Rush yds	15.5	16	52% / 50%	5	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 19%	0	under
2023 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	2	51% / 56%	2	over
2023 W16	Pass yds	270.5	255	45% / 50%	253	under
2023 W16	Rush yds	13.5	11	43% / 51%	25	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 19%	0	under
2023 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	2	50% / 59%	0	under
2023 W15	Pass yds	270.5	265	48% / 50%	134	under
2023 W15	Rush yds	12.5	11	45% / 50%	27	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 22%	0	under
2023 W14	Pass TDs	2.5	2	35% / 38%	2	under
2023 W14	Pass yds	295.5	320	58% / 50%	271	under
2023 W14	Rush yds	14.5	12	43% / 49%	11	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 27%	0	under
2023 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	2	59% / 65%	3	over
2023 W13	Pass yds	280.5	302	58% / 50%	299	over
2023 W13	Rush yds	12.5	13	52% / 50%	23	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 28%	0	under
2023 W12	Pass TDs	1.5	2	62% / 64%	4	over
2023 W12	Pass yds	275.5	319	66% / 49%	331	over
2023 W12	Rush yds	13.5	13	48% / 50%	10	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 22%	0	under
2023 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	2	57% / 59%	2	over
2023 W11	Pass yds	262.5	252	46% / 51%	189	under
2023 W11	Rush yds	12.5	14	56% / 50%	6	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 16%	1	over
2023 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	2	58% / 57%	4	over
2023 W10	Pass yds	252.5	263	55% / 50%	404	over
2023 W10	Rush yds	11.5	14	57% / 50%	17	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 13%	0	under
2023 W9	Pass TDs	1.5	1	40% / 47%	3	over
2023 W9	Pass yds	255.5	257	51% / 50%	374	over
2023 W9	Rush yds	15.5	8.2	28% / 46%	14	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 17%	0	under
2023 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 48%	4	over
2023 W8	Pass yds	241.5	252	55% / 50%	304	over
2023 W8	Rush yds	16.5	12	38% / 48%	19	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 16%	1	over
2023 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 53%	1	under
2023 W6	Pass yds	257.5	258	50% / 51%	272	over
2023 W6	Rush yds	12.5	7.7	36% / 47%	40	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 13%	0	under
2023 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	37% / 42%	1	under
2023 W5	Pass yds	241.5	213	37% / 50%	153	under
2023 W5	Rush yds	12.5	7.2	34% / 50%	2	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 14%	0	under
2023 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 46%	1	under
2023 W4	Pass yds	232.5	240	54% / 50%	261	over
2023 W4	Rush yds	12.5	10	43% / 49%	-1	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 19%	0	under
2023 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 53%	1	under
2023 W3	Pass yds	234.5	258	59% / 50%	249	over
2023 W3	Rush yds	12.5	11	45% / 50%	24	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 16%	0	under
2023 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	25% / 44%	2	over
2023 W2	Pass yds	219.5	206	44% / 51%	255	over
2023 W2	Rush yds	12.5	9.1	39% / 49%	14	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 17%	0	under
2023 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 50%	0	under
2023 W1	Pass yds	241.5	–	– / 50%	143	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	14.5	–	– / 49%	6	under

Our calls

2026 W5 Under 33.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Under 263.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W4 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Over 268.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 268.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Over 265.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Over 266.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Under 260.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W17 Under 34.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 34.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 272.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 272.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 272.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 272.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 35.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 252.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 252.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 35.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 23.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 264.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 35.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 278.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 36.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 36.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 24.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 264.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 264.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 35.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 35.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 35.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 24.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 257.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Over 36.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 25.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 270.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 36.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 36.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 23.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 253.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 253.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 253.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 253.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology