TE · PHI · 139 lines since 2023
Dallas Goedert Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Dallas Goedert, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 24% — we make it 27%
- Line 17.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 42.5 rec yds — we project 35 (P(over) 41%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 48%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 17, under 22 (39 graded)
- Receptions over 18, under 21 (39 graded)
- Anytime TD over 14, under 27 (41 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 7 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: model 31–25 · Starters out on defense 0–6 · Pre-snap motion 2–5 · Freezing 0–1 · Missed tackles 3–1 · Wind 15+ mph 2–2 · Short week 1–2 · Contested catches 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 24% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 17.5 | 16 | 44% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 35 | 41% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 35 | 45% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 49 | 63% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 69% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 31 | 48% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 58% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 37 | 48% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 56% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 32 | 48% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 54% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 29 | 46% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 46% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 58% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 34 | 49% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 60% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 37 | 53% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 54% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 37 | 50% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 59% / 48% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 38 | 54% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 18.5 | 21 | 58% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 51 | 49% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 60% / 52% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 43 | 51% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 57% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 35 | 53% / 50% | 110 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 56% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 31 | 48% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 30 | 43% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 58% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 32 | 45% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 53% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 34 | 43% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 38 | 41% / 53% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 38 | 38% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 30 | 46% / 51% | 61 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 25 | 44% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 59% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 47 | 59% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 64% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 49 | 44% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 33 | 44% / 50% | 170 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 41% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 30 | 37% / 49% | 38 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 33 | 43% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 42 | 50% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 38 | 47% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 36 | 43% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 34% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 31 | 41% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | – | void |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 38 | 43% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 37 | 46% / 51% | 36 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 39 | 48% / 51% | 77 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 36 | 46% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 29 | 39% / 50% | 117 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 57% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 30 | 44% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 31 | 38% / 51% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 11 | 9% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 1 | 4% / 49% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 43.5 | – | – / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 45% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 32.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 33.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 33.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 33.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 35.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 35.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 37.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 52.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 42.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 33.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 32.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 45.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 45.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 49.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 32.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 29.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Over 38.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology