TE · BUF · 151 lines since 2023
Dalton Kincaid Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Dalton Kincaid, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 36% — we make it 12%
- Line 21.5 yds longest rec — we project 20 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 54.5 rec yds — we project 38 (P(over) 31%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 28%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 21, under 23 (44 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 21 (44 graded)
- Anytime TD over 10, under 35 (45 graded)
- Longest reception over 10, under 1 (11 graded)
Our calls on him: Explosive plays 1–0 · Pre-snap motion 3–4 · model 36–33 · Missed tackles 4–2 · Short week 1–3 · Freezing 3–1 · Wind 15+ mph 3–0 · Starters out on defense 2–3 · Middle of the field 2–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 36% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 20 | 45% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 38 | 31% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 39 | 42% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 29% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 50 | 44% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 39 | 35% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 24% / 42% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 23 | 29% / 50% | 130 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 18.5 | 16 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 26 | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 29% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 19.5 | 17 | 44% / 52% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 30 | 36% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 18.5 | 18 | 48% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 28 | 42% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | – | – / 26% | – | void |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 55% / 52% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 39 | 44% / 49% | 37 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 32 | 44% / 50% | 101 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 53% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 33 | 41% / 51% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 18.5 | 18 | 48% / 50% | – | void |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 53% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 30 | 47% / 50% | 108 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 57% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 33 | 47% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 56% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 29 | 45% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 50% / 48% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 24 | 41% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 50% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 28 | 44% / 51% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 15% | – | void |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 34 | 49% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 37 | 51% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 33 | 53% / 49% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 46 | 47% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 39 | 45% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 34% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 34 | 43% / 51% | 31 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 31 | 41% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 36 | 44% / 49% | 51 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 59% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 39 | 45% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 36 | 45% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 36 | 51% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 29 | 30% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 54 | 54% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 35 | 55% / 49% | 84 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 34 | 62% / 51% | 87 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 69% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 38 | 59% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 35 | 43% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 40 | 53% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 45 | 45% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 45% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 41 | 39% / 49% | 46 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 44 | 39% / 51% | 51 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 46% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 31 | 37% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 60% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 34 | 41% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 15 | 32% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 53% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 22 | 37% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 18 | 37% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 21 | 37% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 12 | 21% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 29% / 60% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | – | – / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 50% | 4 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 48.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 48.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 52.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 52.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 52.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 36.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 36.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 41.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 41.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 34.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 34.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 34.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 33.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 34.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 34.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 36.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 36.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 36.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 43.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology