Edgehalla

RB · PHI · 62 lines since 2023

Dameon Pierce Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Dameon Pierce, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 20%
  • Line 23.5 rush yds — we project 22 (P(over) 47%)

Over/under record by market

  • Rushing yards over 3, under 9 (12 graded)
  • Receiving yards over 3, under 7 (10 graded)
  • Receptions over 1, under 6 (7 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 5, under 21 (26 graded)

Our calls on him: model 14–10 · Starters out on defense 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 5–0 · Missed tackles 2–3 · Pre-snap motion 2–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Dameon Pierce prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 18%–…
2026 W5Rush yds23.52247% / 50%–…
2025 W18Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 11%0under
2025 W10Any TD––– / 11%–void
2025 W8Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 6%–void
2025 W5Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 6%0under
2025 W1Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 13%0under
2024 W18Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 20%1over
2024 W17Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 7%0under
2024 W16Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 7%0under
2024 W15Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 11%0under
2024 W13Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 13%0under
2024 W12Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 10%–void
2024 W11Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 12%0under
2024 W8Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 19%0under
2024 W8Rush yds14.51756% / 50%4under
2024 W7Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 15%0under
2024 W6Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 22%1over
2024 W1Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 17%0under
2023 W18Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 24%–void
2023 W18Rush yds13.52674% / 49%–void
2023 W17Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 25%0under
2023 W16Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 23%1over
2023 W15Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 28%0under
2023 W15Rush yds28.52848% / 50%3under
2023 W14Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 32%0under
2023 W14Rec yds3.50.537% / 48%-2under
2023 W14Rush yds40.53135% / 51%9under
2023 W13Any TD–31% TD chance31% / 34%1over
2023 W13Rec yds5.54.848% / 46%0under
2023 W13Rush yds26.53361% / 52%41over
2023 W12Any TD–29% TD chance29% / 38%0under
2023 W12Rec yds6.51.332% / 48%4under
2023 W12Rush yds27.52851% / 50%14under
2023 W8Any TD–38% TD chance38% / 41%0under
2023 W8Rec yds7.57.851% / 48%0under
2023 W8Rec1.5144% / 41%0under
2023 W8Rush yds53.55046% / 50%46under
2023 W6Any TD–38% TD chance38% / 35%0under
2023 W6Rec yds10.56.839% / 51%0under
2023 W6Rec2.5121% / 37%0under
2023 W6Rush yds56.54635% / 51%34under
2023 W5Any TD–42% TD chance42% / 35%0under
2023 W5Rec yds13.58.135% / 50%16over
2023 W5Rec2.5227% / 39%1under
2023 W5Rush yds50.54137% / 50%66over
2023 W4Any TD–45% TD chance45% / 33%0under
2023 W4Rec yds11.58.440% / 50%27over
2023 W4Rec2.5230% / 37%1under
2023 W4Rush yds46.53737% / 50%81over
2023 W3Any TD–45% TD chance45% / 33%1over
2023 W3Rec yds11.56.935% / 50%28over
2023 W3Rec2.5126% / 38%3over
2023 W3Rush yds45.54041% / 51%31under
2023 W2Any TD–40% TD chance40% / 38%0under
2023 W2Rec yds12.58.538% / 51%4under
2023 W2Rec2.5228% / 40%2under
2023 W2Rush yds58.54332% / 51%31under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 30%0under
2023 W1Rec yds15.5–– / 49%9under
2023 W1Rec2.5–– / 48%2under
2023 W1Rush yds55.5–– / 50%38under

Our calls

  • 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) void
  • 2025 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W8 Over 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W18 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) void
  • 2023 W15 Over 28.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Under 28.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W15 Under 28.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W15 Under 28.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W14 Under 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W14 Under 40.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W14 Over 40.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W14 Under 40.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W13 Over 26.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W13 Over 26.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W12 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W12 Over 27.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Under 53.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Over 53.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Over 53.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W6 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W6 Under 56.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W6 Under 56.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W5 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W5 Under 50.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W4 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W4 Under 46.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W3 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W3 Under 45.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W3 Under 45.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W2 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W2 Under 58.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W1 Under 55.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology