QB · IND · 179 lines since 2023
Daniel Jones Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Daniel Jones, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 12%
- Line 31.5 pass attempts — we project 32 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 20.5 completions — we project 21 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 30%)
- Line 206.5 pass yds — we project 202 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 2.5 rush attempts — we project 3 (P(over) 60%)
- Line 9.5 rush yds — we project 8.2 (P(over) 45%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 14, under 19 (33 graded)
- Passing TDs over 11, under 22 (33 graded)
- Rushing yards over 13, under 20 (33 graded)
- Anytime TD over 8, under 26 (34 graded)
- Pass attempts over 4, under 9 (13 graded)
- Completions over 7, under 6 (13 graded)
- Rush attempts over 5, under 8 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 1–3 · model 30–35 · High total (48.5+) 7–4 · Dome team outdoors 2–2 · Big favourite (6.5+) 4–0 · Pressure 0–3 · Low total (40.5 or less) 2–3 · Short week 1–1 · Man coverage 1–0 · Play action 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 54% / 53% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 33% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 206.5 | 202 | 48% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 59% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 8.2 | 45% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 220.5 | 242 | 60% / 50% | 143 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 6.6 | 38% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 210.5 | 199 | 43% / 50% | 235 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 5.4 | 34% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 202 | 43% / 50% | 210 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 5.1 | 39% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 233.5 | – | – / 50% | 166 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 11.5 | – | – / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 31.5 | 34 | 60% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 61% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 220.5 | 246 | 61% / 50% | 60 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 11 | 69% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 55% / 49% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 58% / 48% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 230 | 54% / 50% | 201 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 13 | 68% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 48% / 48% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 51% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 232 | 45% / 50% | 181 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 32% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 12 | 42% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 47% / 48% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 48% / 46% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 250 | 53% / 51% | 255 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 14 | 54% / 51% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 33.5 | 35 | 57% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 22.5 | 23 | 56% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 254.5 | 279 | 61% / 50% | 342 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 33% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 13 | 47% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass att | 29.5 | 31 | 59% / 47% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 54% / 52% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 269 | 63% / 50% | 272 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 19 | 60% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 30.5 | 32 | 57% / 51% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 57% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 225 | 50% / 50% | 288 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 32% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 12 | 40% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 31.5 | 33 | 56% / 48% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 53% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 233.5 | 257 | 60% / 50% | 212 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 34% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 14 | 45% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 63% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 54% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 230.5 | 248 | 58% / 50% | 212 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 15 | 42% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 30.5 | 32 | 58% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 54% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 218.5 | 225 | 54% / 50% | 262 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 32% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 15 | 29% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 54% / 48% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 50% / 48% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 234 | 59% / 50% | 228 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 18 | 39% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 52% / 49% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 47% / 48% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 33% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 200.5 | 202 | 51% / 50% | 316 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 16 | 24% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 30.5 | – | – / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 20.5 | – | – / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 208.5 | – | – / 50% | 272 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 5.5 | – | – / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 25.5 | – | – / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 197.5 | 219 | 60% / 50% | 190 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 28 | 53% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 32% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 203.5 | 204 | 50% / 50% | 174 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 20 | 33% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 59% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 194.5 | 183 | 43% / 49% | 264 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 18 | 28% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 211.5 | 204 | 46% / 50% | 99 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 22 | 39% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 215.5 | 213 | 49% / 50% | 205 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 21 | 27% / 49% | 56 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 2% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 62% / 64% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 182.5 | 182 | 49% / 50% | 257 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 16 | 18% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 201.5 | 195 | 46% / 50% | 281 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 21 | 28% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 57% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 179.5 | 170 | 45% / 50% | 236 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 17 | 26% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 36% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 215.5 | 214 | 49% / 50% | 178 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 19 | 30% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 214.5 | – | – / 49% | 186 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 27.5 | – | – / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 56% / 67% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Pass yds | 190.5 | 189 | 49% / 49% | 25 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 33 | 54% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Pass yds | 220.5 | 195 | 37% / 50% | 119 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 29 | 39% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass yds | 231.5 | 220 | 46% / 50% | 203 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 28 | 35% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 191 | 37% / 50% | 137 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 26 | 26% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Pass yds | 210.5 | 200 | 45% / 49% | 321 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 25 | 31% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass yds | 219.5 | – | – / 50% | 104 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 34.5 | – | – / 50% | 43 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 220.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 220.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 210.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 216.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 233.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 220.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 220.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 220.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 32.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 244.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 244.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 244.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 32.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 242.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 33.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 33.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 22.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 254.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 254.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 254.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 237.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 30.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 225.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 233.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 230.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 30.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 218.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology