WR · IND · 155 lines since 2023
Darius Slayton Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Darius Slayton, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 24, under 22 (46 graded)
- Receptions over 21, under 23 (44 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 40 (47 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 6 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: model 32–37 · Middle of the field 1–0 · Starters out on defense 3–4 · Pre-snap motion 2–1 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0 · Freezing 1–2 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Short week 2–1 · Explosive plays 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 15% | – | void |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 27 | 70% / 50% | – | void |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 39% | – | void |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 23.5 | 28 | 63% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 68 | 59% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 49% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 33 | 45% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 19.5 | 18 | 46% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 30 | 42% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 18.5 | 19 | 51% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 31 | 46% / 52% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 17.5 | 17 | 48% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 27 | 46% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 20.5 | 17 | 41% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 29 | 38% / 52% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 35 | 44% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 53% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 36 | 44% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 19.5 | 16 | 39% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 25 | 34% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 14 | 40% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 21 | 27% / 49% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 20% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 22 | 54% / 52% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 50% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 19 | 46% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 17.5 | 15 | 45% / 51% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 22 | 44% / 49% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 16.5 | 20 | 60% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 36 | 60% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 78% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 24 | 61% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 30 | 65% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 75% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 27 | 53% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 27 | 60% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 35 | 58% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 28 | 58% / 52% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 38% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 38 | 64% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 68% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 36 | 48% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 28 | 53% / 51% | 108 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 47 | 70% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 74% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 54 | 53% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 42 | 51% / 50% | 122 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 21 | 40% / 49% | 56 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 24 | 46% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 29 | 54% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 46 | 73% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 71% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 40 | 45% / 51% | 62 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 40 | 58% / 50% | 106 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 29 | 48% / 50% | 90 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 31 | 62% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 33 | 56% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 30 | 57% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 22 | 48% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 41% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 34 | 47% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 30 | 56% / 49% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 32 | 46% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 29 | 57% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 34 | 55% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 63% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 44 | 56% / 51% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 40 | 58% / 49% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 74% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 36 | 55% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 35.5 | – | – / 48% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 54% | 3 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2026 W4 Over 13.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2026 W4 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2026 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2025 W18 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 56.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 56.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 37.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 34.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 34.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 34.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 30.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 16.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 16.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 16.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 19.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 22.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 22.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology