WR · NYG · 169 lines since 2023
Darnell Mooney Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Darnell Mooney, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 12% — we make it 10%
- Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 12 (P(over) 42%)
- Line 17.5 rec yds — we project 15 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 49%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 25, under 25 (50 graded)
- Receptions over 21, under 29 (50 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 44 (50 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 9 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: model 30–44 · Starters out on defense 2–6 · Dome team outdoors 6–4 · Pre-snap motion 3–3 · Short week 3–1 · Missed tackles 0–3 · Middle of the field 1–5 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Explosive plays 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 12 | 42% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 15 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 16 | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 13 | 43% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 11 | 37% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 57 | 84% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 4 | 89% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 15.5 | 20 | 62% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 33 | 59% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 70% / 62% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 19 | 61% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 32 | 59% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 73% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 16.5 | 25 | 70% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 46 | 70% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 80% / 63% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 17.5 | 23 | 66% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 47 | 61% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 69% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 17.5 | 24 | 68% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 52 | 59% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 19.5 | 26 | 67% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 58 | 61% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 20.5 | 26 | 64% / 49% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 55 | 59% / 51% | 74 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 17.5 | 24 | 64% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 42 | 59% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 18.5 | 21 | 58% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 39 | 56% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 18.5 | 24 | 66% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 53 | 64% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 22.5 | 26 | 58% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 52 | 47% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 17.5 | 21 | 58% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 37 | 52% / 49% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 19.5 | 24 | 61% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 47 | 53% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 18.5 | 24 | 65% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 47 | 58% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3.5 | 50% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 18.5 | 23 | 64% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 48 | 55% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 47 | 51% / 49% | 37 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 53 | 52% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 61 | 57% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 52 | 48% / 51% | 142 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 57 | 54% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 58 | 53% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 66 | 58% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 58 | 53% / 51% | 88 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 57 | 56% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 61 | 55% / 51% | 46 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 61 | 58% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 51 | 54% / 50% | 105 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 57% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 48 | 59% / 54% | 56 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 42 | 56% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 39% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 32 | 45% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 30% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 40 | 52% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 33 | 55% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 29 | 61% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 28 | 54% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 30 | 58% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 29 | 49% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 23 | 43% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 26 | 45% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 25 | 51% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 36 | 56% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 26 | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 32 | 50% / 49% | 51 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 22 | 36% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 43 | 61% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 77% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 29.5 | – | – / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 48% | 4 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 24.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 36.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 36.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 44.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 44.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 37.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 35.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 39.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 46.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 46.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 52.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology