TE · PIT · 121 lines since 2023
Darnell Washington Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Darnell Washington, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 22% — we make it 24%
- Line 13.5 yds longest rec — we project 13 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 22.5 rec yds — we project 19 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 38%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 16, under 11 (27 graded)
- Receptions over 12, under 12 (24 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 51 (54 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 4 (12 graded)
Our calls on him: model 27–25 · Short week 1–3 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Freezing 1–1 · Starters out on defense 5–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–2 · Missed tackles 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 48% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 19 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 43% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 45% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 12 | 46% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 11 | 42% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 22 | 62% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 69% / 60% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 14.5 | 9.8 | 35% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 14 | 29% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 29% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 13.5 | 11 | 42% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 16 | 36% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 12.5 | 9.2 | 41% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 12 | 32% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 12.5 | 11 | 44% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 15 | 38% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 11.5 | 8.9 | 42% / 49% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 12 | 40% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 12.5 | 10 | 41% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 37% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 13 | 46% / 51% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.5 | 47% / 48% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 11 | 45% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.0 | 49% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 10 | 46% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 11.5 | 8.9 | 41% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 12 | 43% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 12.5 | 8.1 | 37% / 52% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 9.4 | 26% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 17% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 9.5 | 3.4 | 31% / 48% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 3.6 | 31% / 51% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 6.5 | 55% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 7.5 | 50% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 8.4 | 43% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 7.9 | 35% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 10.0 | 40% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 7.2 | 40% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.0 | 46% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.1 | 41% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 28% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.1 | 41% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 0.5 | 40% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 0 | 28% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 16.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 22.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 16.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 15.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 15.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 23.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 4.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 4.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 7.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 14.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 11.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology