Edgehalla

TE · CAR · 84 lines since 2023

Darren Waller Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Darren Waller, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 4

  • Anytime TD priced at 33% — we make it 15%
  • Line 37.5 rec yds — we project 26 (P(over) 35%)
  • Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 34%)

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 15, under 10 (25 graded)
  • Receptions over 14, under 11 (25 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 6, under 19 (25 graded)
  • Longest reception over 5, under 4 (9 graded)

Our calls on him: Missed tackles 2–0 · model 25–23 · Pre-snap motion 3–2 · Middle of the field 4–0 · Red-zone defense 0–2 · Freezing 0–1 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Play action 1–0 · Short week 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Darren Waller prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W4Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 33%0under
2026 W4Rec yds37.52635% / 50%36under
2026 W4Rec3.5334% / 50%3under
2026 W3Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 24%0under
2026 W3Rec yds20.51337% / 50%51over
2026 W3Rec2.5229% / 43%5over
2026 W2Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 20%1over
2026 W2Rec yds16.51139% / 51%33over
2026 W2Rec1.5145% / 62%3over
2026 W1Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 19%0under
2026 W1Rec yds17.51852% / 49%28over
2026 W1Rec1.5263% / 59%2over
2025 W17Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 29%0under
2025 W17Long rec15.51547% / 50%0under
2025 W17Rec yds30.52541% / 51%0under
2025 W17Rec3.5334% / 41%1under
2025 W16Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 29%0under
2025 W16Long rec15.51550% / 50%22over
2025 W16Rec yds31.52642% / 51%40over
2025 W16Rec2.5354% / 59%3over
2025 W15Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 28%1over
2025 W15Long rec14.51240% / 50%20over
2025 W15Rec yds28.51731% / 50%66over
2025 W15Rec2.5235% / 51%7over
2025 W14Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 30%0under
2025 W14Long rec15.51135% / 52%13under
2025 W14Rec yds33.51624% / 51%13under
2025 W14Rec2.5235% / 57%1under
2025 W13Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 33%0under
2025 W13Long rec13.59.437% / 50%34over
2025 W13Rec yds25.51227% / 50%47over
2025 W13Rec2.5124% / 45%2under
2025 W7Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 27%0under
2025 W7Long rec15.51234% / 49%0under
2025 W7Rec yds32.52131% / 50%0under
2025 W7Rec3.5338% / 49%0under
2025 W6Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 28%1over
2025 W6Long rec17.51437% / 48%7under
2025 W6Rec yds40.52630% / 50%12under
2025 W6Rec3.5343% / 52%2under
2025 W5Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 26%1over
2025 W5Long rec15.51240% / 49%34over
2025 W5Rec yds30.52033% / 50%78over
2025 W5Rec2.5244% / 59%5over
2025 W4Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 17%1over
2025 W4Long rec8.51469% / 50%14over
2025 W4Rec yds9.52374% / 51%27over
2025 W4Rec1.5270% / 42%3over
2023 W18Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 25%0under
2023 W18Rec yds36.53547% / 51%45over
2023 W18Rec3.5455% / 52%5over
2023 W17Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 29%0under
2023 W17Rec yds40.53443% / 51%51over
2023 W17Rec3.5452% / 55%5over
2023 W16Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 21%0under
2023 W16Rec yds36.52835% / 51%32under
2023 W16Rec3.5454% / 56%2under
2023 W15Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 21%0under
2023 W15Rec yds28.52544% / 50%40over
2023 W15Rec2.5360% / 55%4over
2023 W8Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 22%0under
2023 W8Rec yds42.53539% / 49%4under
2023 W8Rec4.5447% / 42%1under
2023 W7Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 20%1over
2023 W7Rec yds35.53244% / 51%98over
2023 W7Rec3.5459% / 50%7over
2023 W6Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 18%0under
2023 W6Rec yds38.53037% / 50%43over
2023 W6Rec3.5460% / 53%5over
2023 W5Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 22%0under
2023 W5Rec yds40.52933% / 50%86over
2023 W5Rec3.5450% / 59%8over
2023 W4Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 30%0under
2023 W4Rec yds51.53836% / 50%21under
2023 W4Rec4.5442% / 48%3under
2023 W3Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 23%0under
2023 W3Rec yds47.53533% / 50%20under
2023 W3Rec4.5450% / 48%3under
2023 W2Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 29%0under
2023 W2Rec yds45.52017% / 50%76over
2023 W2Rec4.5215% / 42%6over
2023 W1Any TD––– / 33%0under
2023 W1Rec yds45.5–– / 51%36under
2023 W1Rec4.5–– / 43%3under

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Under 37.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W4 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W4 Over 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W3 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Over 17.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Over 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 31.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 31.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 28.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Over 28.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Over 28.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Over 33.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Under 33.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Over 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Under 32.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Under 32.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W4 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W4 Under 9.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W17 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W15 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Under 42.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W7 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W7 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W6 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W6 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W5 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology