WR · LAR · 165 lines since 2023
Davante Adams Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Davante Adams, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 51% — we make it 44%
- Line 23.5 yds longest rec — we project 33 (P(over) 72%)
- Line 62.5 rec yds — we project 76 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 5 (P(over) 52%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 22, under 27 (49 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 26 (49 graded)
- Anytime TD over 23, under 26 (49 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 6 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 7–7 · model 39–40 · Pre-snap motion 8–11 · Starters out on defense 3–4 · Explosive plays 3–3 · Middle of the field 1–5 · Red-zone defense 0–2 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0 · Short week 0–3 · Missed tackles 4–1 · Freezing 1–0 · Play action 3–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 23.5 | 33 | 72% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 76 | 61% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 82 | 63% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 65% / 56% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 81 | 58% / 50% | 137 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 57% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 59 | 46% / 50% | 195 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 31% / 44% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 68 | 62% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 64% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 23.5 | 29 | 63% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 65 | 53% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 22.5 | 29 | 68% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 69 | 60% / 52% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 21.5 | 28 | 67% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 67 | 58% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 22.5 | 30 | 69% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 69 | 56% / 51% | 62 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 22.5 | 27 | 62% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 63 | 52% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 23.5 | 29 | 63% / 49% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 67 | 54% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 22.5 | 30 | 68% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 72 | 59% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 54% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 26.5 | 34 | 71% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 83.5 | 109 | 65% / 49% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 61% / 47% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 24.5 | 31 | 65% / 49% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 73 | 58% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 28 | 67% / 49% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 65 | 56% / 51% | 88 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 23.5 | 29 | 65% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 69 | 53% / 49% | 56 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 22.5 | 26 | 62% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 68 | 54% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 63% / 52% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 61 | 50% / 51% | 106 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 21.5 | 28 | 69% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 77 | 66% / 51% | 51 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 70% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 60 | 43% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 54 | 41% / 49% | 47 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 69 | 47% / 50% | 68 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 37% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 63 | 47% / 51% | 198 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 55% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 60 | 47% / 50% | 109 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 50% / 53% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 60 | 48% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 54 | 43% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 62 | 44% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 52 | 44% / 50% | 91 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 32% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 53 | 43% / 50% | 54 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 34% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 47 | 41% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 59% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 59 | 44% / 51% | 40 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 44 | 34% / 49% | 110 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 61 | 41% / 50% | 59 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 40% / 42% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 72 | 51% / 50% | 46 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 52% / 43% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 66 | 49% / 50% | 126 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 54% | 13 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 58 | 41% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 60% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 60 | 42% / 50% | 101 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 58 | 40% / 49% | 53 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 53 | 39% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 51 | 36% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 46 | 38% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 57 | 36% / 51% | 34 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 56% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 60 | 38% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 64 | 41% / 51% | 57 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 52% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 72 | 46% / 51% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 47% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 84 | 51% / 51% | 45 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 55% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 95 | 62% / 50% | 75 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 8 | 75% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 93 | 61% / 50% | 172 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 8 | 72% / 55% | 13 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 93 | 63% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 9 | 82% / 59% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 73.5 | – | – / 50% | 66 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | – | – / 45% | 6 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 65.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 70.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 70.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 61.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 61.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 57.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 57.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 62.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 62.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 62.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 60.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 60.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 60.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 26.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 83.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 83.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 83.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 63.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 63.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 63.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 63.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 57.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 65.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 62.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 61.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology