RB · HOU · 231 lines since 2023
David Montgomery Player Props
Closing consensus lines for David Montgomery, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 44% — we make it 48%
- Line 7.5 yds longest rec — we project 4.5 (P(over) 38%)
- Line 7.5 rec yds — we project 5.1 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 35%)
- Line 13.5 rush attempts — we project 14 (P(over) 53%)
- Line 54.5 rush + rec yds — we project 59 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 43.5 rush yds — we project 49 (P(over) 58%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 24, under 24 (48 graded)
- Receiving yards over 29, under 18 (47 graded)
- Receptions over 24, under 23 (47 graded)
- Anytime TD over 29, under 20 (49 graded)
- Rush attempts over 6, under 11 (17 graded)
- Longest reception over 10, under 6 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: model 43–52 · Pre-snap motion 16–5 · Missed tackles 15–15 · Dome team outdoors 4–8 · Big favourite (6.5+) 3–4 · Short week 2–3 · Starters out on defense 2–7 · Red-zone defense 1–2 · Light boxes 1–4
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.5 | 38% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 5.1 | 43% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 13.5 | 14 | 53% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 54.5 | 59 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 43.5 | 49 | 58% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.4 | 47% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 53 | 61% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7.9 | 45% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 35 | 28% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 7.6 | 39% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 37 | 19% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 5.1 | 31% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 27 | 16% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 9.5 | 8 | 39% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 35 | 49% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 4.5 | 3.8 | 47% / 52% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 4.2 | 46% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 34% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 8.5 | 8 | 49% / 52% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 39 | 56% / 51% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.2 | 45% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7.5 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 8.5 | 9 | 55% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 47 | 65% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.3 | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7.8 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 7.5 | 8 | 57% / 47% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 37 | 62% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 8.5 | 7.9 | 48% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 10 | 49% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 8.5 | 9 | 55% / 54% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 43 | 60% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.0 | 47% / 48% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.9 | 49% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 9.5 | 9 | 50% / 44% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 41 | 56% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 6.5 | 7.5 | 53% / 52% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 9.4 | 52% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 11.5 | 10 | 41% / 55% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 54 | 50% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.8 | 46% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.2 | 46% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 10.5 | 9 | 40% / 46% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 38 | 48% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.0 | 52% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 10 | 51% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 11.5 | 11 | 43% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 51 | 52% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 6.5 | 6.6 | 50% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 8.1 | 43% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 11.5 | 11 | 44% / 53% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 53 | 53% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 7.5 | 7.4 | 50% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 9.2 | 49% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 10.5 | 9.5 | 42% / 53% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 43.5 | 51 | 59% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6 | 43% / 47% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 7.5 | 50% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 10.5 | 10 | 48% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 48 | 60% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 65% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 5.5 | 7.4 | 58% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 9.3 | 55% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 11.5 | 10 | 39% / 55% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 57 | 52% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.4 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.2 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 12.5 | 10 | 33% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 56 | 62% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.0 | 48% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 11 | 47% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 10.5 | 9 | 35% / 48% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 37 | 49% / 50% | 151 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.8 | 52% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 11.5 | 10 | 40% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 43 | 47% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 7.5 | 9.0 | 57% / 48% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 14 | 61% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 10.5 | 10 | 47% / 47% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 44 | 54% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 64% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 13 | 38% / 52% | 31 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 60 | 52% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 11 | 35% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 40% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 57 | 49% / 50% | 51 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 66% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.5 | 42% / 51% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 53 | 48% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 11 | 49% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 59 | 52% / 51% | 37 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 70% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 12 | 54% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 67 | 57% / 51% | 75 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.6 | 47% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 54 | 46% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 7.6 | 50% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 52 | 43% / 51% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.5 | 47% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 61 | 55% / 49% | 33 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.9 | 45% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 53 | 51% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.5 | 44% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 64 | 58% / 51% | 80 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.9 | 44% / 49% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 59 | 45% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.5 | 42% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 54 | 46% / 50% | 105 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 62% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 2.2 | 35% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 23% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 58 | 51% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.9 | 42% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 28% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 51 | 42% / 51% | 91 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.2 | 39% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 56 | 54% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.7 | 47% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 61 | 56% / 50% | 55 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.6 | 47% / 50% | -3 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 61 | 45% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 2.7 | 39% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 24% / 38% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 52 | 41% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 2.6 | 41% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 24% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 59 | 44% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 3.2 | 42% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 25% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 62 | 44% / 51% | 71 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 3.0 | 40% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 24% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 50 | 49% / 51% | 76 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.3 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 39 | 28% / 47% | 116 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 64% TD chance | 64% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 15 | 48% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 76.5 | 81 | 55% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 8.1 | 31% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 21% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 82.5 | 65 | 35% / 51% | 109 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 2.1 | 32% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 23% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 47 | 45% / 51% | 121 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 2.6 | 24% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 25% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 58 | 54% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 12.5 | – | – / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 53.5 | – | – / 51% | 74 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 44.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 44.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 50.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 50.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 63.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 63.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 9.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 36.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 8.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 34.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 34.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 8.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 35.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 35.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 35.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 29.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 29.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 35.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 35.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 9.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 36.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 36.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 36.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 36.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 11.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 54.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 54.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 54.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 39.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 39.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 11.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 49.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 49.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 49.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 11.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 49.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 43.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 40.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 40.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology