TE · BUF · 155 lines since 2023
Dawson Knox Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Dawson Knox, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 22%
- Line 9.5 yds longest rec — we project 10 (P(over) 53%)
- Line 10.5 rec yds — we project 14 (P(over) 58%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 57%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 22, under 23 (45 graded)
- Receptions over 20, under 22 (42 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 42 (49 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 5 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: model 35–25 · Short week 4–0 · Starters out on defense 5–3 · Freezing 1–4 · Pre-snap motion 2–0 · Wind 15+ mph 3–2 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Middle of the field 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 18% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 9.5 | 10 | 53% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 14 | 58% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 43% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 13 | 59% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 18 | 67% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 19 | 60% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 24 | 66% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 72% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 13 | 42% / 48% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 18 | 36% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / – | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 53% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 18 | 52% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 54% / 48% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 18 | 55% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 11.5 | 15 | 58% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 21 | 58% / 50% | 93 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 52% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 15.5 | 12 | 41% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 18 | 37% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 45% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 20 | 39% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 49% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 21 | 43% / 49% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 8.5 | 9.4 | 53% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 12 | 53% / 49% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 37% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 7.5 | 9.1 | 55% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 11 | 55% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 15.5 | 10 | 36% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 14 | 26% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 22% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.6 | 50% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 10 | 49% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 13 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 10.5 | 12 | 54% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 15 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.4 | 46% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.8 | 45% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 8.5 | 11 | 58% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 15 | 58% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | – | void |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 13 | 56% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 14 | 58% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 21 | 66% / 49% | 42 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 20 | 33% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 18% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 26 | 50% / 52% | 56 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 30 | 51% / 51% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 8.8 | 46% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.0 | 45% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.0 | 42% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.4 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 9.6 | 53% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 9.0 | 44% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 11 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 17 | 55% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 11 | 50% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 15 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 17 | 55% / 49% | 26 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 17 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 14 | 53% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 17 | 29% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 16% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 19 | 53% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 21 | 47% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 21 | 45% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 21 | 42% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 18.5 | – | – / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 59% | 3 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 12.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 17.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 17.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 17.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 15.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 26.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 27.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 25.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 10.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 15.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 9.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 9.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology