WR · SF · 214 lines since 2023
Deebo Samuel Sr. Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Deebo Samuel Sr., what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 30% — we make it 34%
- Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 18 (P(over) 59%)
- Line 34.5 rec yds — we project 34 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 47.5 rush + rec yds — we project 43 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 8.5 rush yds — we project 4.3 (P(over) 37%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 17, under 22 (39 graded)
- Receiving yards over 24, under 25 (49 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 30 (49 graded)
- Anytime TD over 21, under 29 (50 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 4 (5 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 9 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Middle of the field 3–0 · Pre-snap motion 12–9 · Missed tackles 8–8 · model 73–48 · Red-zone defense 0–1 · Freezing 1–1 · Short week 2–3 · Starters out on defense 1–4 · Screens 0–1 · Play action 0–1 · Explosive plays 3–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 30% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 59% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 34 | 50% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 47.5 | 43 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 4.3 | 37% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 42 | 61% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 55 | 63% / 50% | 80 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 66% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 0 | 35% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 43 | 61% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 0 | 29% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 44 | 70% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 75% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 0.4 | 26% / 48% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 18.5 | 17 | 45% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 34 | 35% / 55% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 18.5 | 19 | 52% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 42 | 48% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 46% / 42% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 17.5 | 17 | 47% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 37 | 42% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 18.5 | 18 | 47% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 37 | 44% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 54% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 38 | 45% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 2.0 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 54% / 48% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 48 | 65% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 64% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0.4 | 45% / 51% | -3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 56% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 57 | 59% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 63% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 1.7 | 51% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 58 | 52% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 56% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 62 | 58% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 1.9 | 41% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 18.5 | 19 | 52% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 47 | 54% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 2.1 | 37% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 20.5 | 27 | 69% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 75 | 64% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 58% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 3.1 | 36% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 56% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 64 | 60% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 58% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 2.5 | 1 | 26% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 4.5 | 37% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 60% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 69 | 62% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 7 | 75% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 60% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 3.9 | 39% / 52% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 18.5 | 23 | 66% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 59 | 64% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 1.6 | 37% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 55% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 49 | 47% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 0.5 | 1 | 64% / 67% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 0.7 | 36% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 20.5 | 25 | 63% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 57 | 60% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 40 | 42% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 7.9 | 41% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 35 | 40% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 6.4 | 32% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 37 | 34% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 24% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 5.6 | 21% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 35 | 39% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 23% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 3.8 | 21% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 32 | 41% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 2.7 | 35% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 35 | 43% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 3.9 | 25% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 43 | 34% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 23% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 5.7 | 33% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 47 | 41% / 51% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 9.1 | 52% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 33 | 28% / 51% | 71 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 2 | 15% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 7.7 | 40% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 58 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 8.2 | 37% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 45 | 40% / 50% | 102 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 9.4 | 41% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 56 | 51% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 12 | 45% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 53 | 54% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 57 | 51% / 51% | 110 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 55% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 15 | 34% / 50% | -10 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 54 | 51% / 52% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 78 | 61% / 52% | 37 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 11 | 46% / 47% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 77 | 62% / 51% | 47 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 7.4 | 42% / 52% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 68 | 56% / 49% | 48 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 11 | 43% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 59 | 56% / 51% | 149 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 46% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 12 | 46% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 55 | 53% / 51% | 116 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 7.5 | 37% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 41 | 45% / 52% | 79 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 6.7 | 40% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 46 | 46% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 8.2 | 39% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 42 | 45% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 4.3 | 32% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 40 | 51% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 8.0 | 33% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 60 | 62% / 51% | 55 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 5.7 | 34% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 108 | 88% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 7 | 79% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 85 | 69% / 51% | 129 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 7 | 75% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 6.9 | 28% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 59 | 59% / 49% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 0 | 14% / 48% | 38 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 50.5 | – | – / 51% | 55 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 44% | 5 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 31.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 31.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 33.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 33.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 33.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 46.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 44.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 41.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 41.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 42.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 36.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 55.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 43.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 54.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology