WR · NE · 168 lines since 2023
DeMario Douglas Player Props
Closing consensus lines for DeMario Douglas, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 23% — we make it 18%
- Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 19 (P(over) 64%)
- Line 25.5 rec yds — we project 34 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 55%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 3 (3 graded)
- Receiving yards over 25, under 23 (48 graded)
- Receptions over 22, under 24 (46 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 46 (52 graded)
- Longest reception over 10, under 5 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: model 51–38 · Freezing 3–3 · Pre-snap motion 1–3 · Starters out on defense 4–0 · Missed tackles 4–3 · Short week 0–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Middle of the field 3–2 · Explosive plays 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 19 | 64% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 34 | 61% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 24 | 42% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 19 | 35% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 19 | 29% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 19% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 21 | 50% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 40% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 8.5 | 16 | 69% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 23 | 70% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 57% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 28 | 55% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 11.5 | 14 | 56% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 19 | 58% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 10.5 | 14 | 60% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 20 | 57% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 10.5 | 16 | 64% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 23 | 62% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 14.5 | 19 | 61% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 31 | 63% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 71% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 16.5 | 20 | 58% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 33 | 60% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 73% / 60% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 50% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 29 | 41% / 49% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 56% / 51% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 22 | 55% / 50% | 100 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 19 | 50% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 11.5 | 15 | 58% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 22 | 59% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 38% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 9.5 | 14 | 62% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 20 | 64% / 47% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 12 | 66% / 49% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 18 | 69% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 36% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 23 | 64% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 67% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 55% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 28 | 49% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 16.5 | 20 | 63% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 42 | 60% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 31 | 48% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 28 | 43% / 49% | 46 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 30 | 44% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 31 | 39% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 29 | 35% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 41% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 32 | 42% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 31 | 40% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 24 | 36% / 52% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 25 | 37% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 30 | 34% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 61% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 36 | 35% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 28 | 46% / 50% | 92 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 23 | 43% / 49% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 23 | 35% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 16 | 32% / 49% | 69 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 22 | 36% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 31 | 43% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 39 | 50% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 33 | 28% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 30% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 32 | 31% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 31 | 32% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 37 | 36% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 26 | 25% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 31% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 27 | 27% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 2 | 17% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 20 | 37% / 52% | 25 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 13 | 33% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 18 | 53% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | – | – / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 43% | 4 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 9.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 24.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 15.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 20.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 25.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 18.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 19.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 16.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 34.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 34.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology