RB · BAL · 249 lines since 2023

Derrick Henry Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Derrick Henry, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 60% — we make it 56%
Line 5.5 rec yds — we project 6.7 (P(over) 54%)
Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 44%)
Line 19.5 rush attempts — we project 20 (P(over) 52%)
Line 88.5 rush + rec yds — we project 97 (P(over) 58%)
Line 79.5 rush yds — we project 88 (P(over) 58%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 29, under 26 (55 graded)
Receiving yards over 28, under 25 (53 graded)
Receptions over 19, under 31 (50 graded)
Anytime TD over 35, under 20 (55 graded)
Rush attempts over 11, under 6 (17 graded)
Longest reception over 7, under 6 (13 graded)

Our calls on him: Missed tackles 19–24 · model 48–45 · Pre-snap motion 9–11 · Stacked boxes 5–0 · Red-zone defense 2–0 · Starters out on defense 4–5 · Big favourite (6.5+) 3–2 · Short week 2–3 · Light boxes 5–6 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–1 · Explosive plays 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Derrick Henry prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 60%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	5.5	6.7	54% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	1.5	1	44% / 36%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	19.5	20	52% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush+rec yds	88.5	97	58% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	79.5	88	58% / 50%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	65% TD chance	65% / 70%	1	over
2026 W4	Rec yds	7.5	5.7	45% / 50%	6	under
2026 W4	Rec	1.5	1	36% / 39%	2	over
2026 W4	Rush yds	99.5	111	59% / 50%	73	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	67% TD chance	67% / 71%	1	over
2026 W3	Rec yds	10.5	9.8	48% / 50%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec	1.5	1	46% / 43%	1	under
2026 W3	Rush yds	92.5	114	64% / 50%	89	under
2026 W2	Any TD	–	67% TD chance	67% / 71%	1	over
2026 W2	Rec yds	6.5	7.3	53% / 50%	19	over
2026 W2	Rec	1.5	1	39% / 36%	3	over
2026 W2	Rush yds	94.5	119	66% / 50%	68	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	71% TD chance	71% / 66%	1	over
2026 W1	Rec yds	6.5	11	63% / 50%	19	over
2026 W1	Rec	1.5	2	51% / 35%	1	under
2026 W1	Rush yds	78.5	125	79% / 50%	144	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 61%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	3.5	3.8	51% / 51%	0	under
2025 W18	Rec yds	4.5	4.1	49% / 49%	0	under
2025 W18	Rec	0.5	1	63% / 56%	0	under
2025 W18	Rush att	19.5	19	48% / 50%	20	over
2025 W18	Rush yds	89.5	99	57% / 50%	126	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 53%	1	over
2025 W17	Long rec	3.5	3.4	49% / 52%	0	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	4.5	3.7	47% / 49%	0	under
2025 W17	Rec	0.5	1	64% / 65%	0	under
2025 W17	Rush att	16.5	18	61% / 54%	36	over
2025 W17	Rush yds	74.5	81	56% / 50%	216	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 60%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	6.5	5.8	47% / 51%	0	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	8.5	6.7	45% / 49%	0	under
2025 W16	Rec	1.5	1	37% / 38%	0	under
2025 W16	Rush att	16.5	16	48% / 51%	18	over
2025 W16	Rush yds	78.5	85	56% / 50%	128	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 65%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	6.5	6.9	52% / 49%	0	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	9.5	8.6	48% / 49%	0	under
2025 W15	Rec	1.5	1	43% / 39%	0	under
2025 W15	Rush att	17.5	17	47% / 51%	11	under
2025 W15	Rush yds	88.5	88	50% / 50%	100	over
2025 W14	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 60%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	5.5	6	52% / 51%	8	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	8.5	7.2	46% / 50%	8	under
2025 W14	Rec	1.5	1	39% / 42%	1	under
2025 W14	Rush att	18.5	16	38% / 50%	25	over
2025 W14	Rush yds	80.5	82	51% / 50%	94	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	66% TD chance	66% / 69%	1	over
2025 W13	Long rec	6.5	9.1	61% / 52%	44	over
2025 W13	Rec yds	8.5	12	60% / 51%	44	over
2025 W13	Rec	1.5	2	54% / 47%	1	under
2025 W13	Rush att	18.5	18	46% / 50%	10	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	91.5	101	58% / 50%	60	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 70%	1	over
2025 W12	Long rec	5.5	6.6	55% / 50%	19	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	6.5	8.1	55% / 48%	24	over
2025 W12	Rec	1.5	1	40% / 40%	2	over
2025 W12	Rush att	18.5	18	46% / 48%	21	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	87.5	99	59% / 51%	64	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 56%	1	over
2025 W11	Rec yds	6.5	8.5	57% / 50%	19	over
2025 W11	Rec	1.5	1	49% / 43%	2	over
2025 W11	Rush att	17.5	17	50% / 51%	18	over
2025 W11	Rush yds	74.5	84	60% / 50%	103	over
2025 W10	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 60%	0	under
2025 W10	Rec yds	3.5	3.1	49% / 51%	9	over
2025 W10	Rush att	17.5	16	39% / 49%	20	over
2025 W10	Rush yds	80.5	86	54% / 49%	75	under
2025 W9	Any TD	–	63% TD chance	63% / 71%	0	under
2025 W9	Rec yds	6.5	5.0	46% / 50%	2	under
2025 W9	Rec	1.5	1	29% / 36%	1	under
2025 W9	Rush att	17.5	17	46% / 53%	19	over
2025 W9	Rush yds	87.5	97	57% / 51%	119	over
2025 W8	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 70%	1	over
2025 W8	Rush att	18.5	18	46% / 47%	21	over
2025 W8	Rush yds	86.5	94	56% / 51%	71	under
2025 W6	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 55%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	4.5	3.7	46% / 52%	8	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	4.5	4.1	49% / 51%	8	over
2025 W6	Rec	1.5	1	34% / 36%	1	under
2025 W6	Rush att	16.5	16	48% / 52%	24	over
2025 W6	Rush yds	70.5	72	52% / 50%	122	over
2025 W5	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 60%	1	over
2025 W5	Long rec	3.5	4.1	54% / 51%	0	under
2025 W5	Rec yds	5.5	4.7	47% / 48%	0	under
2025 W5	Rec	0.5	1	67% / 65%	0	under
2025 W5	Rush att	19.5	17	39% / 48%	15	under
2025 W5	Rush yds	86.5	84	48% / 49%	33	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 61%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	3.5	4.1	52% / 49%	10	over
2025 W4	Rec yds	4.5	4.3	49% / 50%	16	over
2025 W4	Rec	0.5	1	65% / 61%	2	over
2025 W4	Rush att	17.5	16	42% / 49%	8	under
2025 W4	Rush yds	81.5	97	62% / 49%	42	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 68%	1	over
2025 W3	Long rec	5.5	4.3	46% / 48%	7	over
2025 W3	Rec yds	4.5	4.8	51% / 51%	7	over
2025 W3	Rec	1.5	1	32% / 37%	1	under
2025 W3	Rush att	18.5	16	37% / 48%	12	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	85.5	105	64% / 51%	50	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	62% TD chance	62% / 68%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	4.5	5.6	54% / 49%	0	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	5.5	6.6	53% / 49%	0	under
2025 W2	Rec	1.5	1	35% / 35%	0	under
2025 W2	Rush att	19.5	17	37% / 51%	11	under
2025 W2	Rush yds	98.5	119	63% / 50%	23	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	70% TD chance	70% / 62%	1	over
2025 W1	Long rec	5.5	9.0	66% / 49%	13	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	5.5	13	70% / 51%	13	over
2025 W1	Rec	1.5	2	61% / 35%	1	under
2025 W1	Rush att	17.5	18	54% / 47%	18	over
2025 W1	Rush yds	82.5	110	70% / 49%	169	over
2024 W18	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 73%	1	over
2024 W18	Rec yds	9.5	7.7	45% / 49%	23	over
2024 W18	Rec	1.5	1	40% / 50%	2	over
2024 W18	Rush yds	95.5	121	67% / 50%	138	over
2024 W17	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 66%	1	over
2024 W17	Rec yds	11.5	12	51% / 50%	18	over
2024 W17	Rec	1.5	2	57% / 54%	2	over
2024 W17	Rush yds	91.5	104	60% / 50%	147	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 66%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	0.5	3.4	61% / 54%	27	over
2024 W16	Rec	0.5	1	62% / 57%	2	over
2024 W16	Rush yds	83.5	86	52% / 50%	162	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 75%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	0.5	3.8	62% / 52%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec	0.5	1	63% / 56%	0	under
2024 W15	Rush yds	104.5	118	58% / 50%	67	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 69%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	1.5	2.4	53% / 50%	29	over
2024 W13	Rec	0.5	1	58% / 57%	3	over
2024 W13	Rush yds	84.5	94	58% / 51%	82	under
2024 W12	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 71%	0	under
2024 W12	Rec yds	4.5	2.1	44% / 52%	0	under
2024 W12	Rec	0.5	1	56% / 64%	0	under
2024 W12	Rush yds	84.5	87	52% / 50%	140	over
2024 W11	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 67%	1	over
2024 W11	Rec yds	5.5	4.0	45% / 50%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec	0.5	1	62% / 62%	0	under
2024 W11	Rush yds	83.5	86	51% / 50%	65	under
2024 W10	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 75%	1	over
2024 W10	Rec yds	4.5	3.4	47% / 51%	3	under
2024 W10	Rec	0.5	1	61% / 66%	1	over
2024 W10	Rush yds	91.5	113	64% / 52%	68	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	58% TD chance	58% / 71%	1	over
2024 W9	Rec yds	4.5	3.2	46% / 49%	27	over
2024 W9	Rec	0.5	1	60% / 64%	1	over
2024 W9	Rush yds	88.5	105	61% / 49%	106	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 73%	1	over
2024 W8	Rec yds	4.5	3.8	48% / 49%	4	under
2024 W8	Rec	0.5	1	65% / 66%	1	over
2024 W8	Rush yds	94.5	111	61% / 50%	73	under
2024 W7	Any TD	–	62% TD chance	62% / 71%	1	over
2024 W7	Rec yds	5.5	5.9	52% / 50%	13	over
2024 W7	Rec	1.5	1	35% / 36%	1	under
2024 W7	Rush yds	86.5	94	56% / 51%	169	over
2024 W6	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 73%	1	over
2024 W6	Rec yds	7.5	7.4	49% / 51%	0	under
2024 W6	Rec	1.5	1	39% / 44%	0	under
2024 W6	Rush yds	89.5	99	56% / 50%	132	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 67%	1	over
2024 W5	Rec yds	7.5	8.1	52% / 50%	4	under
2024 W5	Rec	1.5	1	42% / 44%	1	under
2024 W5	Rush yds	83.5	91	56% / 50%	92	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 62%	1	over
2024 W4	Rec yds	5.5	6	52% / 50%	10	over
2024 W4	Rec	1.5	1	35% / 38%	3	over
2024 W4	Rush yds	68.5	72	53% / 50%	199	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 57%	1	over
2024 W3	Rec yds	6.5	5.8	47% / 53%	23	over
2024 W3	Rec	1.5	1	33% / 39%	1	under
2024 W3	Rush yds	68.5	65	46% / 51%	151	over
2024 W2	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 65%	1	over
2024 W2	Rec yds	6.5	7.2	52% / 51%	12	over
2024 W2	Rec	1.5	1	40% / 42%	1	under
2024 W2	Rush yds	72.5	58	35% / 51%	84	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 56%	1	over
2024 W1	Rec yds	7.5	12	62% / 52%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec	1.5	2	59% / 44%	0	under
2024 W1	Rush yds	63.5	60	45% / 51%	46	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 53%	1	over
2023 W18	Rush yds	52.5	48	45% / 50%	153	over
2023 W17	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 56%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	7.5	7.4	50% / 49%	0	under
2023 W17	Rush yds	55.5	52	46% / 50%	42	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 55%	1	over
2023 W16	Rec yds	10.5	7.9	43% / 49%	11	over
2023 W16	Rec	1.5	2	51% / 56%	1	under
2023 W16	Rush yds	61.5	53	40% / 49%	88	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 59%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	8.5	7.1	45% / 49%	1	under
2023 W15	Rush yds	71.5	56	34% / 52%	9	under
2023 W14	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 43%	1	over
2023 W14	Rec yds	8.5	7.2	45% / 50%	17	over
2023 W14	Rec	1.5	1	50% / 50%	1	under
2023 W14	Rush yds	55.5	49	43% / 50%	34	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 55%	1	over
2023 W13	Rec yds	10.5	8.4	44% / 50%	18	over
2023 W13	Rec	1.5	2	50% / 52%	1	under
2023 W13	Rush yds	67.5	66	48% / 51%	102	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 51%	1	over
2023 W12	Rec yds	11.5	8.6	42% / 50%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec	1.5	2	53% / 58%	1	under
2023 W12	Rush yds	71.5	67	46% / 52%	76	over
2023 W11	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 42%	0	under
2023 W11	Rec yds	11.5	9.8	45% / 51%	6	under
2023 W11	Rec	1.5	2	61% / 61%	1	under
2023 W11	Rush yds	56.5	53	46% / 51%	38	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 45%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	11.5	12	52% / 52%	-4	under
2023 W10	Rec	1.5	2	65% / 62%	1	under
2023 W10	Rush yds	64.5	63	47% / 49%	24	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 41%	1	over
2023 W9	Rec yds	11.5	11	48% / 52%	27	over
2023 W9	Rec	1.5	2	64% / 58%	3	over
2023 W9	Rush yds	73.5	65	42% / 51%	75	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 38%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	9.5	8.3	45% / 51%	21	over
2023 W8	Rec	1.5	2	55% / 51%	4	over
2023 W8	Rush yds	67.5	64	46% / 50%	101	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 42%	1	over
2023 W6	Rec yds	10.5	8.9	45% / 50%	16	over
2023 W6	Rec	1.5	2	56% / 56%	2	over
2023 W6	Rush yds	64.5	59	44% / 50%	97	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 51%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	11.5	10.0	46% / 50%	19	over
2023 W5	Rec	1.5	2	52% / 58%	3	over
2023 W5	Rush yds	77.5	68	40% / 50%	43	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 46%	1	over
2023 W4	Rec yds	12.5	11	47% / 49%	11	under
2023 W4	Rec	1.5	2	60% / 60%	1	under
2023 W4	Rush yds	67.5	53	32% / 49%	122	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 44%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	12.5	14	54% / 51%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec	2.5	3	51% / 39%	0	under
2023 W3	Rush yds	72.5	52	27% / 50%	20	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 52%	1	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	14.5	9.8	37% / 49%	15	over
2023 W2	Rec	2.5	1	29% / 39%	3	over
2023 W2	Rush yds	87.5	37	6% / 50%	80	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 55%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	11.5	–	– / 49%	56	over
2023 W1	Rec	1.5	–	– / 59%	2	over
2023 W1	Rush yds	79.5	–	– / 51%	63	under

Our calls

2026 W5 Under 86.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W4 Under 99.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Over 99.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 99.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 92.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Over 92.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 94.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 94.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 78.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 78.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W18 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 19.5 rush attempts (Stacked boxes, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 89.5 rush yds (Stacked boxes, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 89.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 89.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 16.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 74.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 74.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 74.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 78.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 78.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 78.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 88.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 88.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 18.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 80.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 80.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 18.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 91.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 91.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 91.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 91.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 18.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 87.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 87.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Light boxes, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 74.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 74.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 74.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 74.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 74.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 80.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Stacked boxes, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Light boxes, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Over 87.5 rush yds (Stacked boxes, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology