QB · CLE · 75 lines since 2023
Deshaun Watson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Deshaun Watson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 20% — we make it 12%
- Line 30.5 pass attempts — we project 30 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 19.5 completions — we project 20 (P(over) 53%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 28%)
- Line 191.5 pass yds — we project 191 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 6.5 rush attempts — we project 7 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 25.5 rush yds — we project 22 (P(over) 44%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
- Passing TDs over 9, under 8 (17 graded)
- Rushing yards over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 15 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Low total (40.5 or less) 3–6 · Short week 0–1 · model 12–9 · Man coverage 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Pressure 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 30.5 | 30 | 50% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 53% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 28% / 35% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 191.5 | 191 | 50% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 6.5 | 7 | 51% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 22 | 44% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 67% / 65% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 185.5 | 178 | 45% / 49% | 268 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 22 | 35% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 35% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 187.5 | 187 | 50% / 50% | 144 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 21 | 41% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 59% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 174.5 | 170 | 47% / 50% | 238 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 16 | 34% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | – | – / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 176.5 | – | – / 50% | 205 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 16.5 | – | – / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 181.5 | 202 | 60% / 49% | 128 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 17 | 35% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 62% / 64% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 188.5 | 195 | 54% / 50% | 168 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 16 | 37% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 213.5 | 219 | 53% / 50% | 125 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 21 | 44% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 66% / 67% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 199.5 | 211 | 56% / 50% | 176 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 18 | 43% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 35% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 201.5 | 228 | 63% / 51% | 196 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 20 | 48% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 211.5 | 216 | 53% / 50% | 186 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 16 | 34% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 217.5 | 227 | 54% / 50% | 169 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 6.0 | 14% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 65% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Pass yds | 190.5 | 184 | 47% / 50% | 213 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 12 | 29% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | – | – / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 37% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Pass yds | 205.5 | – | – / 50% | 219 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 17.5 | – | – / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 24% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 205 | 41% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 11 | 21% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 216 | 42% / 50% | 289 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 15 | 28% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Pass yds | 209.5 | 191 | 40% / 49% | 235 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 15 | 26% / 52% | 22 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass yds | 237.5 | – | – / 50% | 154 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 24.5 | – | – / 51% | 45 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 203.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 185.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 185.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 176.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 181.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 199.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 199.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Over 199.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 201.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Over 201.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 217.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W10 Under 190.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2023 W10 Under 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W9 Under 205.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2023 W9 Over 205.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W7 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W7 Under 225.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2023 W7 Under 225.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W7 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W3 Under 232.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2023 W3 Under 232.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W3 Under 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W2 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W2 Under 209.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2023 W2 Under 209.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W2 Under 26.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology