WR · PIT · 230 lines since 2023
DK Metcalf Player Props
Closing consensus lines for DK Metcalf, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 37% — we make it 35%
- Line 20.5 yds longest rec — we project 29 (P(over) 72%)
- Line 51.5 rec yds — we project 72 (P(over) 67%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 5 (P(over) 60%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 32, under 34 (66 graded)
- Receptions over 27, under 41 (68 graded)
- Anytime TD over 29, under 47 (76 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 9 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 7–4 · Short week 4–1 · model 20–25 · Explosive plays 5–6 · Pre-snap motion 2–12 · Freezing 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 2–1 · Starters out on defense 2–3 · Man coverage 1–0 · Middle of the field 1–3 · Red-zone defense 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 37% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 20.5 | 29 | 72% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 72 | 67% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 43% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 51 | 54% / 50% | 115 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 63 | 59% / 49% | 31 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 62% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 53 | 45% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 62 | 62% / 51% | 40 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 67% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 24.5 | 26 | 55% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 58 | 46% / 51% | 42 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 23.5 | 25 | 53% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 56 | 50% / 51% | 55 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 46 | 49% / 50% | 148 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 21.5 | 22 | 51% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 45 | 47% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 58% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 52 | 51% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 3% / 10% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 22.5 | 28 | 62% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 58 | 54% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 41% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 22.5 | 24 | 53% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 48 | 47% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 24.5 | 29 | 60% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 66 | 54% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 24.5 | 29 | 61% / 49% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 69 | 61% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 26.5 | 31 | 60% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 72 | 55% / 49% | 50 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 23.5 | 28 | 61% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 71 | 62% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 63% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 21.5 | 22 | 51% / 50% | 80 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 46 | 45% / 50% | 126 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 23.5 | 24 | 52% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 50 | 42% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 24.5 | 25 | 51% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 54 | 37% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 22.5 | 24 | 56% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 58 | 53% / 50% | 83 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 58 | 44% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 61 | 50% / 50% | 42 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 56 | 41% / 50% | 57 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 65 | 53% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 62 | 49% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 60 | 53% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 65 | 50% / 50% | 59 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 61 | 53% / 53% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 69 | 51% / 50% | 99 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 69 | 54% / 51% | 48 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 72 | 54% / 51% | 55 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 56% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 66 | 50% / 50% | 104 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 68 | 56% / 50% | 104 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 55 | 51% / 50% | 129 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 44% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 73 | 58% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 66 | 50% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 66 | 48% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 30% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 30% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 59 | 46% / 50% | 106 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 59 | 47% / 50% | 106 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 67 | 54% / 49% | 56 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 67 | 52% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 68 | 53% / 52% | 78 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 68 | 53% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 61 | 63% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 61 | 64% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 74% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 74% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 60 | 51% / 53% | 134 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 60 | 50% / 50% | 134 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 66 | 56% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 66 | 57% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 68 | 52% / 49% | 94 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 68 | 52% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 69 | 51% / 50% | 98 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 69 | 54% / 50% | 98 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 63 | 55% / 49% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 63 | 54% / 49% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 55 | 52% / 49% | 67 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 55 | 55% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 65% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 52 | 41% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 52 | 41% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 68 | 47% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 68 | 50% / 51% | 34 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 63% / 60% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 50% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 52 | 41% / 50% | 112 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 52 | 42% / 50% | 112 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 51 | 38% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 51 | 37% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 63.5 | – | – / 50% | 47 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 63.5 | – | – / 48% | 47 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 56% | 3 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 46.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 46.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 52.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 62.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 62.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 62.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 56.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 56.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 48.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 50.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 52.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 52.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 52.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 51.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 24.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 54.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 54.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 26.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 66.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 66.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 56.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 67.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 60.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 66.5 rec yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 66.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 61.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 56.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 56.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 65.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology