WR · LV · 49 lines since 2023
Dont'e Thornton Jr. Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Dont'e Thornton Jr., what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 5, under 6 (11 graded)
- Receptions over 5, under 5 (10 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 15 (15 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 5 (11 graded)
Our calls on him: model 12–5 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Dome team outdoors 0–3 · Short week 0–1 · Pre-snap motion 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | – | … |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 12.5 | 3.4 | 30% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 3.5 | 29% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 21% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 5.5 | 7.5 | 55% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 8.6 | 54% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 69% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 5.5 | 9.9 | 61% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 11 | 62% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 71% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 10.5 | 15 | 59% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 19 | 63% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 3.5 | 13 | 74% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 18 | 75% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 80% / 54% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | – | void |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 56% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 20 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 17.5 | 16 | 47% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 23 | 43% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 54% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 27 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 49% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 24 | 48% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 55% / 52% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 28 | 50% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 14.5 | – | – / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | – | – / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 41% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W17 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 3.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 3.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) void
- 2025 W5 Over 28.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 25.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 25.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology