QB · NE · 186 lines since 2023
Drake Maye Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Drake Maye, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 22% — we make it 20%
- Line 29.5 pass attempts — we project 32 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 19.5 completions — we project 21 (P(over) 58%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 227.5 pass yds — we project 237 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 5.5 rush attempts — we project 5 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 31.5 rush yds — we project 24 (P(over) 37%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 21, under 11 (32 graded)
- Passing TDs over 18, under 14 (32 graded)
- Rushing yards over 17, under 15 (32 graded)
- Anytime TD over 5, under 28 (33 graded)
- Pass attempts over 6, under 11 (17 graded)
- Completions over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
- Rush attempts over 10, under 6 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Pressure 3–3 · High total (48.5+) 7–4 · model 34–41 · Big favourite (6.5+) 4–3 · Freezing 2–3 · Starters out on defense 4–2 · Short week 0–1 · Low total (40.5 or less) 4–3 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–1 · Play action 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 61% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 19.5 | 21 | 58% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 237 | 55% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 55% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 24 | 37% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 42% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 230.5 | 222 | 46% / 50% | 269 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 18 | 31% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 215 | 46% / 50% | 199 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 19 | 35% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 216 | 46% / 50% | 208 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 23 | 42% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 231.5 | 213 | 42% / 50% | 178 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 18 | 35% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass att | 28.5 | 31 | 66% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 56% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 61% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 265 | 60% / 50% | 191 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 4.5 | 6 | 67% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 27 | 64% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 53% / 49% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 46% / 47% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 250.5 | 258 | 53% / 51% | 256 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 5.5 | 6 | 60% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 27 | 64% / 52% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 30.5 | 33 | 64% / 54% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 64% / 52% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 237 | 48% / 51% | 380 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 57% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 20 | 48% / 52% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 62% / 52% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 57% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 233.5 | 231 | 49% / 50% | 155 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 19 | 43% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 65% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 59% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 262 | 58% / 50% | 282 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 24 | 50% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 60% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 55% / 55% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 61% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass yds | 257.5 | 271 | 55% / 50% | 294 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 27 | 53% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 27.5 | 30 | 66% / 52% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 58% / 48% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 235.5 | 254 | 58% / 50% | 281 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 6.5 | 6 | 48% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 31 | 58% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 48% / 49% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 56% / 52% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 236 | 45% / 51% | 270 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 23 | 37% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 29.5 | 29 | 46% / 49% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 46% / 48% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 228.5 | 224 | 48% / 50% | 259 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 6.5 | 6 | 37% / 44% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 30 | 49% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass att | 28.5 | 30 | 56% / 52% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 57% / 52% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 215 | 45% / 49% | 282 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 26 | 46% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 29.5 | 30 | 53% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 47% / 48% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 228.5 | 216 | 44% / 50% | 222 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 6.5 | 6 | 35% / 44% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 24 | 51% / 51% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 56% / 52% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 49% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 234.5 | 236 | 51% / 50% | 261 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 25 | 53% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 50% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 49% / 47% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 226.5 | 208 | 42% / 50% | 273 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 22 | 32% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 30.5 | 32 | 60% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 59% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 212.5 | 231 | 59% / 51% | 203 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 28 | 55% / 52% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 22.5 | 21 | 43% / 46% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 223.5 | 222 | 49% / 50% | 268 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 65% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 25 | 48% / 52% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 33.5 | 34 | 53% / 49% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 55% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 230 | 53% / 51% | 230 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 54% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 21 | 46% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 65% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 53% / 49% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 215.5 | 233 | 58% / 50% | 287 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 25 | 44% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 217.5 | 200 | 40% / 49% | 117 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 22 | 41% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 22% / 30% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 206.5 | 191 | 41% / 50% | 261 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 20 | 36% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 206 | 45% / 50% | 202 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 24 | 42% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 205 | 41% / 50% | 238 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 25 | 41% / 51% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 215.5 | 204 | 44% / 49% | 222 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 17 | 32% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 33% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 204.5 | 194 | 44% / 50% | 282 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 21 | 29% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 54% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 190.5 | 174 | 40% / 50% | 184 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 19 | 29% / 53% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 59% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 194.5 | 181 | 43% / 50% | 206 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 11 | 28% / 52% | 95 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 62% / 66% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 204.5 | 170 | 34% / 49% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 9.0 | 19% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 57% / 66% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 200.5 | 197 | 48% / 51% | 276 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 6.9 | 10% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | – | – / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | – | – / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 166.5 | – | – / 50% | 243 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 28.5 | – | – / 50% | 38 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 19.5 completions (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 227.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 230.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 26.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 231.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 28.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 28.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 242.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 242.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 242.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 21.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 250.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 250.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 30.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 242.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 29.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 233.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 233.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 244.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 244.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 29.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 20.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 257.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 257.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 257.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 27.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 27.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 235.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 235.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 26.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 32.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 246.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 246.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology