Edgehalla

TE · BAL · 89 lines since 2023

Durham Smythe Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Durham Smythe, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 15% — we make it 4%

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 9, under 9 (18 graded)
  • Receptions over 10, under 6 (16 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 0, under 54 (54 graded)

Our calls on him: model 4–22 · Short week 1–0 · Middle of the field 0–1 · Pre-snap motion 0–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–3 · Starters out on defense 1–3

Line vs actual vs our projection

Durham Smythe prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 15%–…
2026 W4Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 8%0under
2026 W3Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 12%0under
2026 W2Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 11%0under
2026 W1Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 9%0under
2025 W18Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 6%0under
2025 W17Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 5%0under
2025 W16Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 6%0under
2025 W15Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 5%0under
2025 W14Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 4%0under
2025 W13Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 4%0under
2025 W12Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 5%0under
2025 W11Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 4%0under
2025 W10Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 4%0under
2025 W9Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%0under
2025 W8Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 12%0under
2025 W7Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 5%0under
2025 W6Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 7%0under
2025 W4Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%0under
2025 W3Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 5%0under
2025 W2Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 4%0under
2025 W1Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 5%0under
2024 W18Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 4%0under
2024 W17Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 3%0under
2024 W16Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 5%0under
2024 W15Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 5%0under
2024 W14Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 5%0under
2024 W13Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 4%0under
2024 W12Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2024 W11Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 8%0under
2024 W10Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 7%0under
2024 W9Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%0under
2024 W8Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 6%0under
2024 W7Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 7%0under
2024 W5Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 5%0under
2024 W4Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 6%0under
2024 W4Rec yds4.58.862% / 49%0under
2024 W4Rec0.5173% / 58%0under
2024 W3Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 6%0under
2024 W2Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 10%0under
2024 W2Rec yds8.51564% / 49%8under
2024 W1Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 11%0under
2023 W18Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 23%0under
2023 W18Rec yds25.51735% / 48%30over
2023 W18Rec2.5239% / 52%3over
2023 W17Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 19%0under
2023 W17Rec yds23.51841% / 50%54over
2023 W17Rec2.5244% / 49%3over
2023 W16Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 19%0under
2023 W16Rec yds14.51448% / 50%56over
2023 W16Rec1.5253% / 58%5over
2023 W15Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 19%0under
2023 W15Rec yds14.51142% / 50%32over
2023 W15Rec1.5145% / 59%4over
2023 W14Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 20%0under
2023 W14Rec yds11.51148% / 50%16over
2023 W14Rec1.5140% / 47%2over
2023 W13Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 20%0under
2023 W13Rec yds14.51449% / 51%0under
2023 W13Rec1.5149% / 55%0under
2023 W12Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 14%0under
2023 W12Rec yds10.58.947% / 51%10under
2023 W9Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 13%0under
2023 W9Rec yds11.510.047% / 50%17over
2023 W9Rec1.5144% / 48%3over
2023 W8Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 16%0under
2023 W8Rec yds12.51145% / 50%28over
2023 W8Rec1.5141% / 49%3over
2023 W7Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 17%0under
2023 W7Rec yds15.51548% / 51%0under
2023 W7Rec1.5253% / 58%0under
2023 W6Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 22%0under
2023 W6Rec yds20.51642% / 50%0under
2023 W6Rec2.5228% / 41%0under
2023 W5Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 21%0under
2023 W5Rec yds21.52048% / 50%0under
2023 W5Rec2.5241% / 43%0under
2023 W4Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 20%0under
2023 W4Rec yds18.51239% / 51%41over
2023 W4Rec2.5128% / 39%4over
2023 W3Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 23%0under
2023 W3Rec yds26.53054% / 50%15under
2023 W3Rec2.5357% / 55%1under
2023 W2Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 23%0under
2023 W2Rec yds25.52550% / 50%23under
2023 W2Rec2.5351% / 52%3over
2023 W1Any TD––– / 19%0under
2023 W1Rec yds16.5–– / 51%44over
2023 W1Rec1.5–– / 59%3over

Our calls

  • 2024 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W4 Over 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W4 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W2 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W2 Under 8.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W18 Under 25.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W18 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W17 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W17 Under 23.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 14.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Under 14.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W14 Under 11.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Under 12.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W7 Over 15.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W7 Under 15.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W6 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W6 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W4 Over 18.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W4 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W3 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology