WR · TEN · 78 lines since 2023
Elic Ayomanor Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Elic Ayomanor, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 13%
- Line 12.5 yds longest rec — we project 14 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 16.5 rec yds — we project 20 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 58%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 10, under 9 (19 graded)
- Receptions over 8, under 11 (19 graded)
- Anytime TD over 5, under 15 (20 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 8 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: model 19–15 · Starters out on defense 2–0 · Pre-snap motion 2–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 54% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 20 | 56% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 21 | 53% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 21 | 62% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 37 | 83% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 0.5 | 3 | 93% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 55% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 37 | 54% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 50% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 26 | 50% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 56% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 26 | 55% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 42% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 49% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 28 | 46% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 48% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 23 | 46% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 27 | 43% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 32% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 59% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 36 | 58% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 58% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 40 | 52% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 17.5 | 21 | 61% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 47 | 62% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 64% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 18.5 | 21 | 57% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 43 | 56% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 58% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 16.5 | 21 | 63% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 44 | 57% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 55% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 35 | 57% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 69% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 57% / 52% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 39 | 51% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 15.5 | 21 | 67% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 39 | 66% / 50% | 56 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 12.5 | – | – / 52% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 22.5 | – | – / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 37% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 22.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 38.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 37.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology