TE · SEA · 52 lines since 2023
Elijah Arroyo Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Elijah Arroyo, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 11% — we make it 4%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 2, under 10 (12 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 11 (12 graded)
- Anytime TD over 1, under 16 (17 graded)
- Longest reception over 2, under 8 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 0–2 · model 16–6
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 1.3 | 42% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 52% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 10 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.7 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 8.0 | 51% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.7 | 46% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7.6 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.0 | 42% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.0 | 42% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 12.5 | 8.9 | 39% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 11 | 38% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 12.5 | 11 | 45% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 14 | 43% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 14.5 | 12 | 42% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 16 | 35% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 9.5 | 6.9 | 43% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 8.0 | 41% / 51% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.5 | 47% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 11 | 45% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 11 | 46% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 14 | 43% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.3 | 49% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 12 | 50% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 12% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Over 4.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 18.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology