TE · ARI · 96 lines since 2023
Elijah Higgins Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Elijah Higgins, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 12% — we make it 11%
- Line 8.5 yds longest rec — we project 8.0 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 9.5 rec yds — we project 10 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 44%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 8, under 8 (16 graded)
- Receptions over 7, under 7 (14 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 45 (49 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 5 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: model 15–16 · Dome team outdoors 3–4 · Missed tackles 0–1 · Starters out on defense 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.0 | 48% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 10 | 51% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 5.3 | 56% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 10.5 | 6.2 | 35% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 7.2 | 31% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 12.5 | 7.8 | 34% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 9.6 | 27% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 21% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.1 | 42% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.5 | 43% / 50% | 91 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 39% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 9.5 | 3.6 | 28% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 4.1 | 31% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 10.5 | 6.7 | 36% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 8.3 | 33% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.1 | 42% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.9 | 43% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 37% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8 | 41% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 9.7 | 41% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.3 | 42% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 8.5 | 5.0 | 37% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 5.9 | 37% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.5 | 40% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 4.8 | 38% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 26% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.8 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 5.7 | 45% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 5.5 | 56% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 22 | 47% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.7 | 48% / 52% | 21 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 37% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 6.2 | 37% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 0% TD chance | 0% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 4% | – | void |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 4% | – | void |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 21.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 21.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 8.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 10.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 7.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 3.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Over 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Under 8.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 11.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology