RB · SEA · 117 lines since 2023
Emanuel Wilson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Emanuel Wilson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 56% — we make it 46%
- Line 7.5 yds longest rec — we project 4.7 (P(over) 39%)
- Line 11.5 rec yds — we project 5.4 (P(over) 32%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 34%)
- Line 16.5 rush attempts — we project 14 (P(over) 37%)
- Line 79.5 rush + rec yds — we project 67 (P(over) 37%)
- Line 64.5 rush yds — we project 58 (P(over) 42%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 14, under 14 (28 graded)
- Receiving yards over 3, under 7 (10 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 6 (7 graded)
- Anytime TD over 9, under 44 (53 graded)
- Rush attempts over 3, under 6 (9 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
Our calls on him: model 28–30 · Missed tackles 4–7 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–2 · Short week 1–1 · Starters out on defense 3–1 · Light boxes 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.7 | 39% / 54% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 5.4 | 32% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 57% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 16.5 | 14 | 37% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 79.5 | 67 | 37% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 58 | 42% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 0 | 20% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 56 | 62% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 37 | 63% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 7.5 | 7 | 43% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 27 | 39% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 5.5 | 7 | 69% / 46% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 28 | 57% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 5.5 | 7 | 69% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 28 | 59% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 5.5 | 7 | 67% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 30 | 67% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 4.5 | 3.9 | 47% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 4.5 | 50% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 6.5 | 10 | 83% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 44 | 77% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 8.5 | 2.5 | 27% / 52% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 2.7 | 21% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 9% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 17.5 | 8 | 2% / 47% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 68.5 | 33 | 11% / 50% | 107 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 22 | 61% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 4.5 | 2.7 | 41% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 2.8 | 43% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 22 | 52% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 2.3 | 26% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 26 | 45% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 3.5 | 5 | 67% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 19 | 55% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 25 | 59% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 26 | 74% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 21 | 56% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 20 | 57% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 21 | 72% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 21 | 63% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 25 | 68% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 0.1 | 40% / 51% | -2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 50% / 65% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 23 | 52% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 1.7 | 41% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 20% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 25 | 50% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 1.6 | 40% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 21% / 33% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 24 | 39% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 2% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 2.4 | 40% / 51% | -9 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 21% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 22 | 37% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 2% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 3.4 | 37% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 28% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 15 | 41% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 2% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 7.0 | 20% / 49% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 2% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 8.5 | 34% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 8.4 | 31% / 49% | 46 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 1% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 2% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 1% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 2% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 1% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 21.5 | – | – / 50% | 5 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 45.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 33.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 22.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 22.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 5.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 24.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 24.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 68.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 16.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 16.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 4.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 17.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 16.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 16.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 16.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 10.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 15.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 22.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology