Edgehalla

RB · · 94 lines since 2023

Emari Demercado Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Emari Demercado, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 9% — we make it 12%

Over/under record by market

  • Rushing yards over 7, under 6 (13 graded)
  • Receiving yards over 3, under 7 (10 graded)
  • Receptions over 4, under 7 (11 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 4, under 37 (41 graded)
  • Rush attempts over 2, under 4 (6 graded)
  • Longest reception over 4, under 4 (8 graded)

Our calls on him: model 24–21 · Missed tackles 1–4 · Big underdog (6.5+) 3–1 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Dome team outdoors 2–2 · Big favourite (6.5+) 0–1 · Short week 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Emari Demercado prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 9%–…
2026 W4Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 9%–void
2026 W3Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 13%–void
2026 W3Rush yds7.51058% / 48%–void
2026 W2Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 18%0under
2026 W2Rush yds11.51046% / 50%8under
2026 W1Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 18%0under
2025 W18Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 17%0under
2025 W18Long rec7.53.931% / 52%28over
2025 W18Rec yds10.54.428% / 50%28over
2025 W18Rec1.5133% / 59%1under
2025 W18Rush att4.5436% / 57%2under
2025 W18Rush yds18.51542% / 51%29over
2025 W17Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 20%0under
2025 W17Long rec7.53.133% / 49%7under
2025 W17Rec yds9.53.332% / 50%9under
2025 W17Rec1.5126% / 52%2over
2025 W17Rush att4.5331% / 43%5over
2025 W17Rush yds15.51854% / 50%11under
2025 W16Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 20%0under
2025 W16Long rec8.54.234% / 50%0under
2025 W16Rec yds11.54.732% / 50%0under
2025 W16Rec1.5131% / 61%0under
2025 W16Rush att4.5325% / 50%5over
2025 W16Rush yds15.51548% / 51%30over
2025 W15Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 18%0under
2025 W15Long rec8.51.821% / 48%5under
2025 W15Rec yds9.52.023% / 51%0under
2025 W15Rec1.5123% / 55%2over
2025 W15Rush att2.5353% / 54%1under
2025 W15Rush yds10.51050% / 50%1under
2025 W11Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 29%0under
2025 W11Long rec7.54.036% / 50%9over
2025 W10Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 25%0under
2025 W10Long rec7.50.823% / 48%34over
2025 W10Rec yds8.50.924% / 50%40over
2025 W10Rec1.5120% / 54%3over
2025 W10Rush att8.545% / 54%4under
2025 W10Rush yds35.51722% / 50%64over
2025 W9Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 19%0under
2025 W6Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 15%0under
2025 W6Rec1.5116% / 44%0under
2025 W5Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 28%0under
2025 W5Long rec8.52.026% / 52%0under
2025 W5Rec yds12.52.020% / 50%0under
2025 W5Rec2.517% / 42%0under
2025 W5Rush att5.524% / 45%3under
2025 W5Rush yds18.56.521% / 50%81over
2025 W4Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 18%1over
2025 W4Long rec6.51.329% / 51%7over
2025 W4Rec yds7.51.429% / 51%13over
2025 W4Rec1.5118% / 45%2over
2025 W4Rush yds14.53.320% / 50%8under
2025 W3Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 7%0under
2025 W2Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 9%0under
2025 W1Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 8%–void
2024 W14Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 9%0under
2024 W13Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 10%0under
2024 W12Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 11%0under
2024 W10Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 17%0under
2024 W9Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 10%1over
2024 W8Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 10%0under
2024 W7Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 12%0under
2024 W6Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 11%0under
2024 W5Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 10%0under
2024 W4Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 13%0under
2024 W3Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 10%0under
2024 W2Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 10%0under
2024 W1Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 7%0under
2023 W18Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 19%0under
2023 W17Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 12%0under
2023 W17Rec yds9.57.141% / 50%9under
2023 W17Rec1.5149% / 51%1under
2023 W17Rush yds9.51565% / 49%0under
2023 W16Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 13%0under
2023 W15Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 9%1over
2023 W13Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 10%0under
2023 W12Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 16%0under
2023 W12Rush yds8.51771% / 50%15over
2023 W8Any TD–27% TD chance27% / 32%0under
2023 W8Rec yds13.57.933% / 49%1under
2023 W8Rec2.5228% / 43%1under
2023 W8Rush yds41.51813% / 50%78over
2023 W7Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 16%0under
2023 W7Rush yds11.59.142% / 48%58over
2023 W6Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 21%0under
2023 W6Rec yds16.56.924% / 49%6under
2023 W6Rec2.5120% / 44%1under
2023 W6Rush yds40.5117% / 50%11under
2023 W5Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 16%1over
2023 W4Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2023 W3Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 9%0under
2023 W2Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 9%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 5%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W3 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
  • 2026 W2 Over 11.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 4.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 18.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 4.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Over 15.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 15.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Over 15.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 2.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Over 10.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Under 8.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Over 35.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 35.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Under 35.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Over 5.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Under 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W4 Under 14.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) void
  • 2024 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W17 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W17 Under 9.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W17 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W12 Over 8.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W12 Over 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Under 41.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W7 Under 11.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology