TE · DEN · 158 lines since 2023
Evan Engram Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Evan Engram, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 17%
- Line 11.5 yds longest rec — we project 12 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 18.5 rec yds — we project 17 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 35%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 23, under 23 (46 graded)
- Receptions over 27, under 19 (46 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 40 (46 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 10 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: model 32–33 · Missed tackles 5–6 · Short week 2–1 · Starters out on defense 3–1 · Middle of the field 7–4 · Pre-snap motion 2–1 · Explosive plays 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 18% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 50% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 17 | 47% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 43% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 15 | 45% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 18 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 20 | 43% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 26% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 20 | 45% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 11.5 | 14 | 58% / 52% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 22 | 54% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 53% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 24 | 50% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 55% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 51% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 59% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 14.5 | 13 | 45% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 23 | 41% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 48% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 28 | 48% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 54% / 48% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 24 | 53% / 51% | 79 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 56% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 55% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 28 | 48% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 26 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 58% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 61% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 29 | 53% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 59% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 26 | 52% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 60% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 57% / 52% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 23 | 49% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 50% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 18 | 45% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 49% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 25 | 42% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 14.5 | 19 | 68% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 48 | 65% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 70% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 36 | 39% / 49% | 33 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 41 | 38% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 38 | 40% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 38 | 36% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 44 | 45% / 51% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 50% / 47% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 40 | 40% / 51% | 36 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 41 | 41% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 30 | 41% / 50% | 102 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 58% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 58 | 62% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 61% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 49 | 47% / 49% | 79 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 52% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 43 | 43% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 46 | 42% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 43 | 41% / 49% | 28 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 56% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 31 | 30% / 49% | 95 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 52% | 11 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 44 | 41% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 40 | 45% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 41 | 45% / 49% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 46 | 50% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 38 | 40% / 48% | 88 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 54% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 30 | 33% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 36 | 40% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 54% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 39 | 45% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 39 | 40% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 54% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 43 | 54% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 44% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 27 | 35% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | – | – / 49% | 49 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 43% | 5 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 23.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 23.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 29.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 25.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 29.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 32.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 44.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 50.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 50.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 50.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 45.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 49.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 48.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 49.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 48.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 48.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 36.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology