WR · NYJ · 146 lines since 2023
Garrett Wilson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Garrett Wilson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 39% — we make it 37%
- Line 22.5 yds longest rec — we project 24 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 67.5 rec yds — we project 74 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 6.5 receptions — we project 7 (P(over) 55%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 21, under 24 (45 graded)
- Receptions over 25, under 20 (45 graded)
- Anytime TD over 15, under 30 (45 graded)
- Longest reception over 3, under 4 (7 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 1–1 · model 32–22 · Pre-snap motion 6–3 · Wind 15+ mph 1–2 · Missed tackles 3–5 · Freezing 1–0 · Play action 0–3 · Short week 2–1 · Middle of the field 2–1 · Man coverage 0–1 · Contested catches 0–1 · Explosive plays 2–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 39% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 22.5 | 24 | 56% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 74 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 55% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 73 | 48% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 57% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 77.5 | 62 | 39% / 50% | 107 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 40% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 46 | 28% / 50% | 57 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 32% / 53% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 58 | 47% / 50% | 79 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 21.5 | 18 | 39% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 39 | 31% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 56% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 64 | 58% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 73% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 22.5 | 26 | 61% / 48% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 71 | 54% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 53% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 22.5 | 24 | 54% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 67 | 51% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 60% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 23.5 | 22 | 46% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 65 | 49% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 59% / 55% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 21.5 | 25 | 61% / 49% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 74 | 59% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 65% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 58% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 67 | 64% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 7 | 77% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 53 | 48% / 50% | 51 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 56 | 54% / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 66% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 57 | 44% / 50% | 54 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 60 | 50% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 59 | 47% / 50% | 114 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 59 | 49% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 50% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 71 | 52% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 57% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 72 | 50% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 56% / 57% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 64 | 52% / 51% | 90 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 61 | 51% / 50% | 113 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 59 | 55% / 51% | 61 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 64% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 59 | 51% / 51% | 107 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 54% / 53% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 58 | 50% / 50% | 101 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 62% / 59% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 58 | 54% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 60 | 45% / 51% | 33 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 56 | 37% / 50% | 57 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 58% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 58 | 41% / 50% | 60 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 49 | 50% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 69% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 54 | 54% / 52% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 72% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 61 | 46% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 47% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 55 | 50% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 68% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 54 | 53% / 51% | 108 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 66% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 58 | 56% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 60% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 58 | 54% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 68% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 62 | 44% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 59% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 63 | 54% / 50% | 93 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 54% / 47% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 84 | 63% / 51% | 80 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 69% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 64 | 53% / 50% | 100 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 67% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 69 | 60% / 50% | 90 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 70% / 57% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 68 | 60% / 51% | 54 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 69% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 60 | 56% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 63% / 46% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 64 | 62% / 50% | 48 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 6 | 77% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 44 | 43% / 50% | 83 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 70% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 67.5 | – | – / 52% | 34 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | – | – / 54% | 5 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 75.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 77.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 77.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 65.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 62.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 52.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 52.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 62.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 62.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 59.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 61.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 60.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 72.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 61.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 61.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 60.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 60.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 54.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 54.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 57.5 rec yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 65.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Under 50.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Under 65.5 rec yds (Contested catches, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Over 65.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology