TE · SF · 153 lines since 2023
George Kittle Player Props
Closing consensus lines for George Kittle, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 36% — we make it 28%
- Line 20.5 yds longest rec — we project 19 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 54.5 rec yds — we project 43 (P(over) 38%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 47%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 28, under 18 (46 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 22 (45 graded)
- Anytime TD over 20, under 26 (46 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 5 (11 graded)
Our calls on him: Explosive plays 1–2 · Middle of the field 2–4 · Pre-snap motion 8–10 · Missed tackles 4–7 · model 33–41 · Starters out on defense 6–2 · Red-zone defense 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–2 · Short week 2–2 · Freezing 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 20.5 | 19 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 43 | 38% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 54 | 39% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 53 | 56% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 64% / 60% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 42 | 51% / 50% | 80 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 47 | 66% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 71% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 21.5 | 20 | 44% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 45 | 33% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 22.5 | 22 | 50% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 55 | 40% / 51% | 115 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 22.5 | 21 | 45% / 48% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 44 | 34% / 49% | 88 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 28% / 43% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 18.5 | 16 | 43% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 33 | 38% / 49% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 21.5 | 20 | 44% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 40 | 31% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 20.5 | 19 | 46% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 41 | 37% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 19.5 | 17 | 40% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 33 | 30% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 19.5 | 18 | 44% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 33 | 30% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 20.5 | 15 | 33% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 29 | 19% / 48% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 20.5 | 17 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 33 | 27% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 31% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 23.5 | 21 | 42% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 46 | 33% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 49 | 45% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 57 | 42% / 49% | 112 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 44% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 52 | 37% / 50% | 106 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 57% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 53 | 42% / 51% | 61 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 39 | 33% / 51% | 151 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 42 | 45% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 35 | 46% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 65 | 52% / 50% | 57 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 40 | 36% / 50% | 128 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 52 | 48% / 51% | 92 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 46 | 48% / 52% | 58 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 38 | 44% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 45 | 48% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 44 | 48% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 45 | 48% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | – | void |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 71 | 63% / 52% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 64% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 64 | 62% / 50% | 126 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 65% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 56 | 59% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 64 | 61% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 56 | 59% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 67% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 56 | 54% / 52% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 57 | 62% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 55 | 64% / 50% | 116 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 70% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 37 | 37% / 51% | 149 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 42% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 34 | 34% / 51% | 78 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 26 | 37% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 33 | 41% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 53 | 61% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 70% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 34 | 34% / 51% | 90 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 35% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 30 | 37% / 49% | 30 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | – | – / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 48% | 3 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 57.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 57.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 64.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 64.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 46.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 62.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 62.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 62.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 66.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 61.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 61.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 43.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 57.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 52.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 52.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 50.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 55.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 53.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology